From historic flooding in Pakistan to torrential rains in Australia and scorching heat and wildfires in California; 2022 has had its fair share of climate emergencies.
And according to local experts, the extreme weather is far from over.
“As long as the storm track is pushed northward by La Niña, then high pressure is going to be over our area, and we will continue to be warm to hot more often than we usually are,” said Ivory Small, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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What is La Niña?
La Niña is a weather pattern. According to Small, it happens when water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean begins to cool and water on the surface of the gulf starts to get warm.
In areas like Texas and Louisiana, the shift causes hurricanes. In Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Asia it brings cooler temperatures, rain, and flooding. For us, in California, it does the opposite.
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“What it typically does, and it's easiest to see on the West Coast, is the storm track that normally comes down into California gets pushed north,” said Small. “Seattle and Portland reap the benefits of the rainfall and then we don’t get the big storms we typically get.”
La Niña is one of two phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Climate Pattern. El Niño brings the opposite type of weather.
Small says typically the pattern only lasts on average 9 to 12 months but we’re now going into the third consecutive year of La Niña.
“Three La Niñas in a row is kind of like we're going into unusual territory,” said Small.
He says the third year of La Niña will be harsh on southwestern states like California, already suffering a bad drought.
“Immediately I think of fire because we need to green up the hillsides,” said Small. “And if we don't get the rainfall, we've got a lot of fuel for any potential fires that develop.”
He says weather models show La Niña lasting through January but getting much milder with time. He recommends extra precaution this fall.
“We have to be extra careful, compared to even a normally expected rough fire season, this season, because we're in unprecedented territory,” said Small.
This is the first time this century we see La Niña three years in a row. According to experts, it's rare, but has happened in the past.
