Bob Melvin is entering his 20th season as a big league manager. In those first two decades he never had a roster like this. Like, it’s not even comparable, not that Bo-Mel would ever make a comparison like that in the first place.
“I don’t like to rate but it’s a team with a lot of stars, which I have not had a ton of and it’s a team with a very high payroll, which I have not had a ton of,” says Melvin.
Most of his time was spent in Oakland, where he dragged the A’s to the playoffs six times in 11 years with a payroll that never ranked higher than 21st and was in the bottom five in the league in all but two of his seasons at the helm.
Conversely, the 2023 Padres told the luxury tax to take a hike. They’re looking at an Opening Day payroll a shade less than $250 million, which is almost exactly what the A’s spent on their teams from 2018 through 2022. And, they seem to be spending that money in the right places.
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13 players on their projected 26-man roster have been to the All-Star Game. That number could swell to 14 when Fernando Tatis Jr. is back from his steroid suspension, depending on whether or not they keep outfielder David Dahl (2019 All-Star) around. So, yeah, the hype around Melvin’s crew is legit.
MLB.com polled 87 baseball experts on how the season will go. They picked the Padres to win their first World Series title. Advanced analytics sites like FanGraphs say San Diego will be one of the top three teams in the game and win the National League West for the first time since 2006.
A year ago, the Friars toppled the Dodgers in the Division Series but fell to the Phillies in the NLCS. That left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.
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“Our job’s not finished. We know what it takes to get there but we’ve still got a lot to do this year,” says closer Josh Hader. “We’re all excited about the guys we have together in this clubhouse and we know that we have the opportunity to do a lot of special things.”
This team is so loaded, with so many expectations, that guys who could be regulars in other places came here instead. Like Dahl, who was with the Rockies for several years and has seen this Padres juggernaut grow before his eyes.
“I want to win a championship and this team’s really good,” says Dahl. “I think I could be a great 4th, 5th outfielder and help this team out. We’ve got a lot of superstars in here so I felt like I could learn a lot and the opportunity was there to win a championship for me.”
Ditto Michael Wacha. The right-hander was the NLCS MVP with the Cardinals in 2013 but hasn’t started a playoff game since 2015. The thrill of October baseball is what brought him to San Diego, too.
“Oh, most definitely,” says Wacha. “I want to get there more than anything. That’s all I think about in the off-season during those workouts and those bullpen sessions. The postseason is always on my mind and that’s what I’m working for, to put together a good regular season, win the division, and make a little run in the postseason. We feel like we have the club here to do that.”
And with that, here are three reasons the Padres will win the 2023 World Series … and three reasons they won’t.
The Padres Will Be Champs Because: Everyone Lives Up to Expectations
This roster is LOADED. I mean, LOOOOOOADED. When Fernando Tatis Jr. comes back after serving the final 20 games of his steroids suspension the lineup is very likely going to look like this:
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF (All-Star)
- Juan Soto, LF (All-Star)
- Manny Machado, 3B (All-Star)
- Xander Bogaerts, SS (All-Star)
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B (All-Star)
- Nelson Cruz/Matt Carpenter, DH (All-Star/All-Star)
- Ha-Seong Kim, 2B
- Austin Nola, C
- Trent Grisham, CF
Then you have the starting rotation, which after everyone is back by the end of April looks a lot like this:
Yu Darvish (All-Star)
Joe Musgrove (All-Star)
Blake Snell (All-Star)
Nick Martinez
Michael Wacha (All-Star)
Seth Lugo
And, on the bench you’ll have another All-Star in outfielder David Dahl and in the bullpen is All-Star closer Josh Hader and All-Star setup man Drew Pomeranz. There is so much talent on this club that as long as everyone plays up to their potential it’s almost impossible for the Friars not to win it all.
The Padres Won’t Be Champs Because: Everyone Gets Hurt
Injury is the great equalizer. As good and deep as the Padres are, there’s a point where no team can withstand a rash of players missing time. Last year they went to the NLCS without Tatis, due to both injury and suspension.
This year they’ll be able to get by if they don’t have Tatis and another star. But, if three of their top four in the batting order (which might be the most dangerous first four in the game) are out for a prolonged period … or if a couple of their starting pitchers go down with an ailment … the road to the championship will simply be too treacherous to navigate.
The Padres Will Be Champs Because: They Get Even Better in July
We’ve seen it pretty much every year at the trade deadline. General Manager AJ Preller makes a trade, or a series of trades, trying to make a pennant push. Sometimes it works out, like last year when they pulled off some kind of magic trick to land Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Brandon Drury, and Josh Bell, all of whom helped along the way to October.
Sometimes it doesn’t work out, like 2021 when Adam Frazier and Daniel Hudson weren’t enough to prevent a historic late-season collapse.
This year the Padres should be in a position that they don’t have to do too much to the roster in the middle of the year, but AJ will still likely try to iron out a few wrinkles.
The last trade he made came at last year’s deadline. That means it’s been eight months since AJ swung a deal and that’s by far the longest he’s ever gone without making a deal. You have to figure he’s itching to make a trade and the middle of the season seems like a logical place for it.
The Padres Won’t Be Champs Because: They Don’t Have the Prospect Capital
All those youngsters the Padres have to work with, the top prospects everyone wants? They’re mostly gone. The Padres farm system that just a few years ago was ranked as the best in the game is not nearly as deep as it used to be.
Shortstop Jackson Merrill has turned into a legitimate middle of the diamond big league prospect. Pitcher Dylan Lesko is one of the top righthanded prospects in the game. Catcher Ethan Salas is 16 years old and might get to the California League THIS YEAR.
They’re as close to untouchable as you’re going to find. After that? It’s a lot thinner than we’re used to. That means teams with more in the system (I hate to say it but the Dodgers are on that list) will be able to make offers for the biggest names on the market, which could very well include Shohei Ohtani. The Padres might not be able to make a major upgrade while other extremely talented teams do, and that could be the difference in hoisting a trophy and being home handing out candy on Halloween.
The Padres Will Be Champs Because: It’s Bob Melvin’s Time
This year the skipper will pass Hall of Famer Earl Weaver on the all-time wins list and become the 25th manager in history to reach 1,500 victories. Bo-Mel is very likely just one World Series away from cementing his Cooperstown candidacy.
This feels like his time. You don’t have a career like he’s had and win where he’s won without being one heck of a baseball man. Now that he has the talent to work with we’ll get to see one of the truly good people in professional sports finally reach the top of the mountain.
The Padres Won’t Be Champs Because: The Chemistry Just Isn’t Right
What if Tatis isn’t fully right and has an episode like he had in 2021 where Machado had to dress him down in the dugout? What if Soto focuses too much on getting a contract extension and sours the clubhouse? What if the rotation is not as deep as we’d hoped because Martinez and Lugo, both coming off seasons as relievers, aren’t built up enough and can’t make it to the end?
These are not probabilities but they are possibilities, however remote. If the pieces don’t go well together even a magnificent manager might not be enough to keep the title train on the tracks.
Bottom Line: The Padres Will Win The 2023 World Series
Yup. There’s just too much good going on here. Even though Opening Day had to be pushed back due to rain, this season will end with a parade.
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