The push to recall Governor Gavin Newsom has enough verified signatures and is now on the verge of making it to the ballot, but some political experts say removing Newsom from office could be really tough to do.
For a look at how the recall election is shaping up NBC 7 talked to Thad Kousser, chair of political science at UC San Diego.
"Now, the economy is opening back up, we have the lowest COVID rates in the continental United States, and so that all bodes well for Gavin Newsom being able to survive this recall if it were held today," Kousser said.
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NBCNews.com reported that a recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California showed that 56% of likely voters don’t support the recall, while 40% want Newsom out.
Kousser is not alone in his analysis.
“I think it's going to be very, very difficult to recall him,” Republican Scott Sherman told NBC 7.
Sherman is among the San Diegans who would like to see Newsom recalled.
Though the state-mandated pandemic shutdowns that helped fuel the recall effort financially affected Sherman's insurance company, the former San Diego City Councilmember who recently ran for mayor learned a thing or two about politics while in office.
“One thing in my eight years in politics I’ve found is that people have very short memories," Sherman said. "And you know, they get very riled up for a short period of time. When you go down the road a little bit, they forget about what riled them up in the first place."
The first hurder is confirming that enough names remain on the petition. People who signed it have until June 8 to withdraw their signatures.
And while California trends blue, Kousser said special elections can sometimes have different results.
" Often, turnout is lower," Kousser said. "And the types of folks who regularly turn out are who are always at the polls, and that's a part of the electorate that is older, more conservative."
Ellen Nash helps register voters as chair of the Black American Political Association and is ready to mobilize against the recall.
“Phone calls, texting, holding forums -- like I said, with Gavin Newsom himself, if we can, or collaborating with several organizations to possibly get Gavin here," Nash said.
The recall election date set by the lieutenant governor is expected to take place somewhere in late fall -- assuming enough names remain on the petition.