Dry conditions and above-average temperatures: it’s what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting in its 2022-2023 Winter Outlook for the southern part of the country.
It’s not what many want to hear heading into the winter season. As a La Niña Pattern returns for the third consecutive winter, climate scientists say drought conditions have the potential to worsen.
”With the ongoing La Niña conditions, which will be the third winter in a row, unfortunately, that tends to favor below normal precipitation, you know a drier signal across much of the southern tier of the country through Southern California, the southwest and all the way through the southern plains to the southeast,” Jon Gottschalk of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.
In the outlook, areas, like the Pacific Northwest could receive above-average rainfall, but not the southern part of the country. Gottschalk said while some areas could receive a regeneration of snowpack and reservoirs this winter, anywhere south of there could experience the opposite. From the southwest to the plains, the southeast, and the Atlantic coast, all areas could be impacted by warmer winter temperatures and below-average rainfall.
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“We’re very concerned and worried about the drought conditions that have expanded almost 2/3 across the country now,” Gottschalk said.
The outlook cites that 59% of the country is experiencing drought but the areas that will be hit the hardest will be the western U.S. and the southern Great Plains, which could impact crops, livestock, and agriculture production.
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Back in California where drought conditions are statewide, things could get worse. Even with recent rain-producing events like summer monsoons to our east and Tropical Storm Kay in September, conditions remain dry.
According to National Weather Service’s San Diego Office, rainfall totals for the water year of October 1, 2021-September 30th, 2022, coastal communities received about 6.75’’ of rain compared to its 9.79’’ average, whereas inland valleys received roughly 10.47’’ compared to it’s 14.65’’ average.
Alex Tardy with NWS San Diego says California’s rainfall totals from the past two years are 50% of where they should be.
The unfortunate reality of a below-average rainfall winter season is one California is familiar with and could keep the state’s streak of year-round fire season. To view the full outlook, click here.
