It could be years until San Diego taxpayers learn how much a pension case ruling might cost them.
While a state labor board decided in favor of city union workers, their leaders say the only sure winners figure to be lawyers.
It's expected that the city will challenge the ruling in a state appeal court -- and get a restraining order, then an injunction to freeze the status quo.
For now, the case adds up to an administrative and financial nightmare.
"What I think we'll actually see, more likely, is some sort of settlement,” says Liam Dillon, assistant editor of Voice of San Diego, NBC 7’s online media partner.
Dillon could imagine a $10 million to $15 million settlement offer from the city that sets the bargaining table for a better global solution: “Because what the (labor board’s) restrictions are -- what the city's supposed to do -- is pretty much impossible to accomplish. "
About 2,000 city employees have been hired under 401(K) style retirement plans in the three years since the Proposition B citizens' initiative took effect.
The labor board's order calls for retroactively awarding them the "defined benefit" pensions the city traditionally offered, plus 7 percent interest.
The mayor and city attorney say they're confident the ruling -- which cited a lack of good faith negotiations, and the involvement of city officials in the initiative -- will be overturned in court.
Union leaders predict the opposite, but say if the city would finally sit down at the bargaining table, a "win-win" solution probably could be worked out.
"Just prior to Prop. B, as firefighters, we agreed to pension reform that significantly reduced pensions for firefighters hired after January 1, 2012,” says Alan Arrollado, president of City Fire Fighters Local 145.’
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“As a matter of fact -- the cost of those pensions? The city would be paying less if the firefighters were in those pensions than the current 401(k) that they're in."
But Ed Harris, president of the San Diego Lifeguard Assocation, is pessimistic about a good-faith negotiations scenario.
"My expectation is, they will make the wrong move to protect their political careers,” Harris told NBC 7. “ So they will fight this, pay more money to attorneys. They will ultimately lose, but will have moved on and the taxpayers will be on the hook for it. There's really not a big hook, if you go into it and fix it now."
