3 reasons the Padres should sell at the trade deadline … and 3 reasons they should buy

Major League Baseball's trade deadline is August 1. The Padres have seven games to play before that judgment day. It is not hyperbole to say this is one of the most important regular season weeks in the history of San Diego professional baseball.

If they're a magnificent seven, the Padres could add pieces and roll back into the postseason. If it's a deadly seven, the Friars will have to admit that they are the Waterworld of big league baseball: a massive financial commitment that turned into a flop of historic proportions.

They're 48-52 and sit 10.0 games out in the division and 6.0 back in the National League Wild Card race. That leaves them 62 games to make up substantial ground with a whole bunch of other clubs also sniffing October baseball.

As we sit on Monday, July 24, 2023, here are three reasons the Padres should just call it a season and sell off assets at the deadline ... and three reasons they should reinforce what's here and refuse to wave the white flag.

SELL: The Hole Is Just Too Big To Crawl Out Of

There's hope ... and then there's ignorance. Last year the last Wild Card team (Philadelphia) won 88 games. That seems like a pretty reasonable number to secure a postseason berth in 2023. To get there San Diego would have to finish the season on a 40-22 run. To do that they'll have to go on a nice, long winning streak, and therein lies the problem.

The Padres have not had a winning streak longer than three games all season long. That's almost unheard of for a professional baseball team. This year the Oakland Athletics are 28-74, the worst record in the game. They own a 7-game winning streak. Even the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who went 43-119, had a 4-game winning streak.

At this point you have to think the Padres are what they are: maddeningly inconsistent. If they haven't shown the ability to go on a long winning streak by now it would be foolish to believe they have it and if they don't have it they are not going to the playoffs.

BUY: 6.0 Games Is Not Insurmountable

This type of comeback has happened before and more often than you might think.

The 1995 Mariners trailed the Angels by 11.0 games in August and went to the ALCS. The 2006 Twins were 9.5 games out and went to the ALDS. Shoot, the 2012 A's were 5.0 games behind the Rangers with nine games to play and won the division (by the way, that club was also managed by Bob Melvin).

MLB history is littered with tales of teams not just catching fire down the stretch, but clubs collapsing to let someone else run them down. This season should be no different so giving up with two months left in the year is short-sighted. Adding a couple more pieces could be the adrenaline shot this clubhouse has been needing to get going.

Remember 2021?

All the speculation was Max Scherzer was coming to bolster a starting rotation that needed reinforcements in a bad way. Then he ended up in Los Angeles and the team completely fell apart. This year adding an unexpected star could have the inverse effect, snapping the club out of its year-long funk and hotwiring that winning streak that's eluded them.

SELL: Don't Mortgage The Future To Rescue One Year

Since the 2020 trade deadline the Padres have parted with immense prospect capital. So far it's led to a pair of playoff appearances but no pennants. General manager AJ Preller has spoken multiple times about trying not to win just one year, but trying to win for a decade.

So, it's time to restock the system.

How much could this club use a MacKenzie Gore or CJ Abrams right about now? They don't have anyone at the upper levels of the minor leagues who can step into backfill for injury or ineffectiveness. They probably won't next year, either. While there are future superstars in the pipeline like catcher Ethan Salas and starting pitcher Dylan Lesko, they're both teenagers at Single-A Lake Elsinore. The only impact prospect anywhere near Major League-ready is shortstop Jackson Merrill and he just earned a promotion to Double-A a couple of weeks ago.

The Padres have pieces that other teams would pay a pretty price for at the deadline. Blake Snell leads MLB in Earned Run Average. Josh Hader is one of the most dominant closers of the last 25 years. Both of them are free agents after the season. While the possibility certainly exists to re-sign them it's a bigger likelihood that if they finish the season in San Diego they'll sign somewhere else, leaving the Padres with nothing in return. Even Seth Lugo, who is almost assuredly going to opt out of his contract after the season, could fetch a prospect or two.

(Let's leave any Juan Soto speculation out of this because it just seems like a bridge too far to deal him away with one year of control left)

Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish ... a lot of the nucleus is locked up long-term. Admit that this season is lost and bring in some help for 2024 and beyond.

BUY: Why Part With All-Stars Who Have Track Records?

Someone in the game told me once that prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise.

There are only a handful of "sure things" in professional baseball. Snell is a known commodity and, although infinitely confounding and frustrating at times, simply one of the most talented left-handed pitchers in the game. Hader is 29 years old and has already been to five All-Star Games. Lugo is re-establishing himself as a solid back-end rotation option who can win you important games down the stretch.

It's not great business practice to send away players in their primes who have demonstrated an ability to play high-level ball over a substantial period of time in exchange for players who might be able to match, let alone exceed, the production you already have in house. On any given night Snell could throw a no-hitter. Hader could go a month without allowing a hit.

Keep the guys you know can still help you for as long as possible, then add even more to the room, and use them to put some wind in the sails down the stretch.

SELL: One $tep Back, Two $teps Forward

This team has a massive financial commitment for 2023. Even if it's for just a couple of months at the end of the season, sending some high-priced players out for younger, less expensive options is prudent for a couple of reasons.

Trading Snell and Hader alone would save about $11 million the rest of the way. If they don't come back for 2024 it takes $30.7 million off the books. Add Lugo's $7.5 million, Luis Garcia's $3.75 million, and the $10 million you're paying Drew Pomeranz not to pitch, and you have $52 million more to spend next year. Some of that is offset by increases to deals for, among others, Tatis Jr. and Machado.

But, it still leaves you with about $40 million, which might get you in the door to talk to a certain Angels 2-way superstar who's eligible for free agency. Owner Peter Seidler should forever be praised for spending the way he does, even if it didn't work this year. He's very likely not going to stop throwing money around just because 2023 was an epic failure, but it might be nice to get a little bit back in the interim.

BUY: They Owe It To The Fans To Go For It

Peter made a financial commitment to the fans. In return, the fans have spent a lot of money supporting the Padres. The club has shattered its single-season sellout record and will demolish its 81-game attendance mark, even with ticket price increases.

How can they quit now?

I honestly believe Peter cares about what the fan base has done. On the field at Petco Park after the Padres knocked the Dodgers out of the National League Division Series I was talking to him about the fans who were still there. He pointed at them, eyes glistening, saying he loved the Friar Faithful.

If the team breaks up the collection of talent they've assembled and waves the white flag on the season it could send the message to a lot of San Diego sports fans that the team doesn't care about winning, they already have your season ticket dollars. That's certainly NOT the case but perception is a tricky thing. The last thing this ownership group wants to do is look disingenuous to a long-suffering fan base that has spent at a record-setting level.

Adding more firepower at the deadline will certainly prevent anyone from thinking the Padres are all in on winning.

BOTTOM LINE

So, which line of thinking wins out? That's the hard part.

Both approaches make sense and could, in the long run, end up being the right move or the wrong move. That's the position they've put themselves in with their underachieving ways. Knowing the right course to take is nearly impossible right now.

The only thing I can guarantee is the Padres will not do nothing. Moves are coming. The next seven days will dictate what kinds of moves those will be.

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