2022 NFL Team Values: Did Dean Spanos Make A Good Decision Moving the Chargers to LA?

Every year around this time Forbes comes out with its list of NFL team values. It’s actually fairly accurate since the Broncos sold for $4.65 billion, right in the ballpark of their estimated total.

It’s also something we in San Diego look at with a morbid curiosity because it’s a way to answer the question of whether or not Dean Spanos made the right move in taking the Chargers from America’s Finest City to Los Angeles. The main reason he gave for the move was the need to generate more revenue to be competitive.

I will present the numbers and let you make your own decision (and I’ll warn you now, there are A LOT of numbers in this story so please hang with me).

In 2022 NFL franchises are worth an average of $4.47 billion, an increase of 28% from a year ago. To create some context on the Chargers let’s go back to 2015, the year the Rams, Raiders, and Bolts all started their campaigns to move from St. Louis, Oakland, and San Diego, respectively. Here’s how Forbes had them valued at the time:

Chargers = $1.5 billion (22nd in the NFL)
Rams = $1.45 billion (28th)
Raiders = $1.43 billion (31st)

How are those numbers looking in 2022? It’s quite a different story.

Rams = $6.2 billion (3rd)
Raiders = $5.1 billion (9th)
Chargers = $3.8 billion (20th)

While the Rams value skyrocketed by $4.7 million and the Raiders are worth more than triple what they were in Oakland, the Bolts have only increased by $2.3 billion. Now, that is certainly nothing to sneeze at. But is it substantially more than they’d have increased had they stayed in San Diego?

For the sake of this exercise let’s look at a few other NFL franchises to see how they stack up against the Chargers. Luckily, we have a few convenient comps based on the official list of market size in America:

26) Baltimore
27) Indianapolis
28) San Diego
29) Nashville, where the Titans are located

We’ll also throw in Buffalo, market 53, for fun. In 2015 their values looked like this:

Baltimore = $1.9 billion (12th in the NFL)
Indianapolis = $1.8 billion (14th)
Tennessee = $1.5 billion (26th)
Buffalo = $1.4 billion (32nd)

In 2022 the values of those teams are … well, they’re pretty good:

Baltimore = $3.9 billion (19th)
Indianapolis = $3.8 billion (23rd)
Tennessee = $3.5 billion (28th)
Buffalo = $3.4 billion (29th)

All of those franchises are worth $2 billion more now than in 2015. None of them have gone to a Super Bowl or made massive organizational changes or relocated. So, if you have a team in the NFL, it increased $2 billion over seven years simply by existing so it stands to reason San Diego would be in the same boat had the Chargers not moved.

Another important factor to consider is the facility. The Chargers moved into a new stadium in the #2 media market in the United States, a move designed to be incredibly lucrative (it sure has been for the Rams).

Since 2015 three other teams have gotten what amounts to new homes. The Vikings opened U.S. Bank Stadium, the Falcons broke in Mercedes Benz Stadium, and Dolphins completely renovated Hard Rock Stadium so it doesn’t even look like the same place.

Here’s how their franchise values have changed from 2015 to now:

Minnesota
2015 = $1.6 billion (18th)
2022 = $3.9 billion (18th)
$2.3 billion increase

Atlanta
2015 = $1.7 billion (17th)
2022 = $4.0 billion (16th)
$2.3 billion increase

Miami
2015 = $1.8 billion (16th)
2022 = $4.6 billion (13th)
$2.8 billion increase

That $2.3 billion increase for the Vikings and Falcons is exactly the same as the Chargers jump in value. So, it stands to reason that if they had moved into a new facility in San Diego, that number would be the same or even higher.

Now, let’s talk revenue.

Sportico has a really cool infographic about revenues for NFL teams. In 2014, the Chargers were actually one of the higher-earning clubs in the league and doing better than the Rams or Raiders:

Chargers = $304 million
Rams = $290 million
Raiders = $285 million

In 2021 the revenues for these three franchises are more than a little different:

Rams = $692 million
Raiders = $571 million
Chargers = $484 million

That’s an increase of $180 million for the Chargers, a paltry sum compared to the windfalls for the Rams and Raiders. Let’s go back to our other test subjects, starting with the teams playing in similar-sized markets.

Baltimore
2015 = $345 million
2022 = $505 million
Difference= $160 million

Indianapolis
2015 = $321 million
2022 = $490 million
Difference = $169 million

Tennessee
2015 = $318 million
2022 = $484 million
Difference = $166 million

Buffalo
2015 = $296 million
2022 = $475 million
Difference = $179 million

All of them have experienced revenue increases to the Chargers and all but Buffalo are actually making more than or the same as the Bolts. And how are our teams with new facilities faring on the revenue front?

Minnesota
2015 = $281 million
2022 = $505 million
Difference = $224 million

Atlanta
2015 = $303 million
2022 = $566 million
Difference = $263 million

Miami
2015 = $322 million
2022 = $528 million
Difference = $206 million

All of them are making at least $26 million more per year than the Chargers, who are playing in arguably the best stadium on earth. Plus, Dean Spanos is paying $64,500,001 a year for the relocation fee and rent to Stan Kroenke for the next decade, and it stands to reason that takes a substantial chunk out of the revenue pie.

As for the viability of a new stadium in San Diego, with Snapdragon Stadium opening two years and two days from the moment they put a shovel in the ground San Diego State and its partners proved building one here was not an impossibility.

Perhaps, some day down the road, another owner will feel the same way.