Overconfidence and Disconnect – San Diego Value Trends According to Zillow

A few weeks ago, Zillow released their third quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey. The survey was conducted in October, well after the now-infamous financial meltdown, yet the “My home is special” syndrome still seems to afflict many. On the west coast, we were generally a little more realistic. While Zillow estimates that 85% of homes in the west declined in value, a mere 35% of surveyed homeowners felt their home had either held its value or increased in value.

Yesterday Zillow released their report on third quarter year-over-year home value index (Zindex) changes. For those new to these parts, I will repeat my belief that while their Zestimates are generally fairly silly (but getting better), their Zindexes are much better since they represent the median of the Zestimates.

Here is their 3rd quarter heat map for San Diego County:

If you prefer numbers and letters, here is the overall movement for the county:

These numbers roughly track what I see from our MLS data, as does the year over year decline in the Zestimate for Scripps Ranch (approximately 8 percent). I’ll spare you the boring details, but sorting their neighborhood spreadsheet by percentage decline, Ocean Beach was the only neighborhood that showed an increase, albeit minuscule, in home values, and all other coastal communities are hanging tough with the smallest value declines in the county. This goes back to the idea that until someone moves the big, blue wet thing, properties near the beach will always fair better than their inland cousins.


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