After a comeback win in prime time on NBC’s Sunday Night Football the Chargers are one of the buzziest teams in the NFL. Their Super Bowl odds leapt to 9-to-1. Only the Saints, Rams, Patriots, and Chiefs are more highly favored to win the whole thing.
But do they deserve the hype?
I mean we’re talking about a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl and has a long history falling dramatically short of expectations. You’ve heard it before … the Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They’ve been that plenty of times before and fizzled out.
One of the biggest issues they’ve had is the propensity to play down to the level of competition and get burned in games they should win, which is the situation they find themselves in against the free-falling Bengals.
Cincinnati started 4-1 but has since lost six out of seven including four in a row. Their quarterback is out for the season and their head coach is probably just playing out the string of his Cincy career. This is a team the Chargers should handle with relative ease.
But history says nothing is ever easy with this team.
So here are three key matchups for Sunday’s meeting on the Carson soccer pitch:
Chargers LB Melvin Ingram vs. Motivation
Chargers linebacker Melvin Ingram is supposed to be one of the Chargers best defensive players. He’s certainly paid like it. Ingram had 5.5 sacks in nine games without Joey Bosa to take the attention of offenses so the thought was when #99 came back Ingram would go nuts on opposing quarterbacks.
The exact opposite has happened.
In three games with Bosa, Ingram has no sacks. Last week in Pittsburgh he didn’t even record a tackle. He doesn’t even show up on the defensive stat sheet. Shoot, even Steelers offensive lineman Alejandro Villanueva recorded a tackle (bringing down Derwin James after an interception). Ingram has nearly disappeared when he’s supposed to be taking over. I’m going to speculate and say he’s let up a bit and allowed Bosa to be the big bad QB buster. The Chargers defense is at its best when Ingram and Bosa are both getting after passers. Jeff Driskel is not Johnny Unitas but he’s been capable in his last two games in place of Andy Dalton. If Ingram and the Bolts don’t put serious pressure on him he could be just efficient enough to give Cincy a puncher’s chance to win a close game late.
Chargers RB Justin Jackson vs. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Justin Jackson should not have been the spark plug for the Chargers in their 2nd half comeback against the Steelers, but here we are. The 7th round pick from Northwestern was the backup to the backup to the backup when the season started. He was simply the backup in Pittsburgh since Melvin Gordon was out with a knee injury. But the Bolts had trouble running between the tackles with Austin Ekeler so they gave Jackson a shot.
He gouged one of the league’s better defenses and made it look easy. Jackson had nine touches for 82 scrimmage yards including a sizzling 18-yard TD run right up the middle. Jackson has looked so dynamic that I’ll make the case he should be starting until Gordon is back, putting Ekeler back into the “change of pace back” role where he’s thrived. We’ll see if the Chargers coaching staff, not one that is quick to adopt new ideas, gives it a shot.
NFL Line Judges vs. Whatever They Think They’re Seeing
For some reason linesmen in Chargers games in 2018 have a tendency to lose their minds. Or vision. Hugo Cruz missed a call so egregiously in a game in Cleveland that the NFL fired him, the first time in the Super Bowl era the league has relieved an official of his duties in the middle of the season for a performance issue. The same thing happened in Pittsburgh (although without any job loss) when right tackle Sam Tevi moved well before the snap but no penalty was called and Philip Rivers hit Travis Benjamin for a 46-yard TD that should not have counted. It looked like they also missed a few times where the Steelers were off-sides so maybe it was just a terrible night for the zebras. Whatever is going on it seems to involve the Bolts a lot and that might have an impact on this game, too.
Derek’s Prediction
Rivers is playing some of the best football of his career. He’s not taking nearly as many chances as he used to and that’s helped the Chargers offense run more efficiently, making it both methodical and dangerous. The Bengals, who are also missing A.J. Green, simply don’t have enough to compete even if the Chargers play down to their opponent again.
Final score: Chargers 27, Bengals 16
