Colorado is gone: Now the Pac 12 Conference NEEDS San Diego State to stay afloat

NBC 7's Derek Togerson looks at why the Pac 12 Conference is failing and how the Aztecs can help it remain viable

Finally, San Diego State has something resembling leverage.

They’ve been trying to join the Pac 12 Conference for a while. Now, they might be the ones who can save it from collapsing. Let me explain by going back to last Friday’s Pac 12 Football Media Day. Commissioner George Kliavkoff was asked if he was concerned that other conferences would poach some of their schools after the Big 10 was able to lure away USC and UCLA.

His response did not age well:

“It’s not a concern. Our schools are committed to each other and to the Pac 12. We’ll get our media rights deal done. We’ll announce the deal. I think the realignment that’s going on in college athletics will come to an end for this cycle.”

On Wednesday the Big 12 Conference voted to extend an invitation to the University of Colorado starting with the 2024-25 season. The Buffaloes officially accepted on Thursday, putting the Pac 12 in some extremely dangerous waters. That reminds me of something else Kliavkoff said when asked if he had heard the rumor mill churning with talk the conference he’s in charge of was on the verge of collapsing:

“I sit in the board meetings and I see the commitment that all of our schools have to each other, and I also know kind of where the sources of that is coming from. So, I discount that because I know the truth.”

Ouch. Oh-for-2.

The Pac 12 has been waiting for more than a year to see what their new media rights deal is going to look like. Speculation has been all over the board, from major networks like NBC and ESPN to using the CW as a linear TV partner along with streaming services like Apple and Amazon to an online subscription only model.

Kliavkoff tried to make the case that, despite the market overwhelmingly suggesting waiting was not a good idea, the league was somehow in a better spot because they were immeasurably patient:

“The longer we wait for the media deal the better our options get. I think our board realizes that. There’s an underlying shift in the media market that’s happening and we are long-term taking advantage of that, but short-term it may have provided some hiccups.”

If by “hiccups” he means losing another school, the one with Deion Sanders, the most talked about head coach in the nation outside Tuscaloosa, bringing all kinds of hype back to Boulder, then he was right on. I mean, George himself compared Coach Prime’s presence to that of … and this is 100% true … Beyonce or Taylor Swift, saying Sanders certainly adds value to a media deal.

Yet still, they waited. Inevitably someone was going to get antsy and look for a more secure situation.

The Buffs are bouncing back to the Big 12 for that very reason, and they might not be the only ones. Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah have all had conversations with the Big 12. If the Pac 12 doesn’t get its media deal ironed out ASAP they’re staring down the very real possibility of having only eight teams left, if not fewer, which is something else Kliavkoff said he was not losing any sleep over:

“The Pac 12 Board of Directors has met regularly throughout the process and has been united in their commitment to one another and to the Pac 12. This commitment and patience will be rewarded with an announcement in the near future.”

See a pattern forming here?

The Pac12 has been reluctant to add new schools before they have their broadcast plan locked in. The only way to combat contraction is with expansion. That’s something Kliavkoff says they’re interested in, but they have a plan and seem intent on sticking to it:

“We’ve already done our due diligence on expansion candidates many months ago and significantly narrowed our focus to a handful of schools. Our sequence remains unchanged: First we will conclude our media rights deals, then our schools will sign our grant of rights, which has already been negotiated, and only then will be decide on potential expansion.”

Much like the Padres waiting for their season to turn around, the Pac 12’s window for waiting is expiring. With Colorado on the way out, and the Big 12 reportedly looking to add at least one more to keep an even number of member institutions moving forward, the Pac 12 conference seemingly has to either announce its deal now or change its mind on the sequence.

This is where San Diego State comes into play.

Colorado is a loss, for sure, but for the last half decade or so their athletics department has actually been worse than SDSU’s pretty much across the board. Losing USC and UCLA means the league with PACIFIC in its name doesn’t have a presence in California south of Palo Alto, effectively cutting the conference off from the fertile recruiting grounds of Southern California. San Diego State can mitigate some of that loss by keeping some kind of foothold in the region.

Losing Denver (media market 18) is not as big a deal, especially if they can add another team like Southern Methodist University and gain a presence in the Dallas area, which has always produced a slew of Division 1 talent.

There is more than just a football element here. UCLA is one of the Pac 12’s best, and certainly most historic basketball programs. SDSU is fresh off a run to the national title game and would help keep the Pac 12 in the conversation as a truly top-tier hoops entity. Oh, and the Big 12 is also considering adding Gonzaga and Connecticut as basketball-only members so they see the hardcourt as a legitimate money-making endeavor (take notes, George).

Yes, the Aztecs leadership completely bungled their clunky attempts to inform the Mountain West Conference they were leaving, then they were thinking about leaving, then they weren’t leaving but still might be at some point in the near future. The Buffaloes are giving them a gift.

Now, for the first time ever, the Pac 12 needs the Aztecs more than the Aztecs need the Pac 12. This is the time to get everyone on Montezuma Mesa on the phone with Kliavkoff’s office and get the negotiations started.

Well, I say that with one caveat. Make that two caveats, and they’re located a long way up Interstate 5.

When Colorado, USC and UCLA are gone, Oregon and Washington will take over as the undisputed emperors of the Pac 12. There have been rumblings that those two schools are not thrilled about the thought of expansion, instead wanting to take a larger piece of the revenue sharing pie (whatever that ends up being) and having fewer teams to contend with for a conference football title and the expanded College Football Playoff spot that will come with it. While it’s not wise to upset the heavy hitters in your conference, the Ducks and Huskies have to understand something.

A 9-team league simply doesn’t work in the modern college sports world. Shoot, anything smaller than 12 is playing with fire as teams continue to flip conference allegiances.

Of course, maybe they have designs on bolting for the Big 10 or Big 12 and don’t really care about what happens to their former home. If those two schools left the Pac 12 would cease to exist, even if it did add San Diego State, leaving everyone else to fend for themselves and be forced to join another conference. Ironically, the Mountain West Conference would be a legitimate option.

The potential of those Pacific Northwest stalwarts leaving brings up another concern:

Would the Aztecs want to go to a conference taking on this much water? A decade ago they were on their way to the Big East as a football member, only to see that conference do away with football altogether. Ditching the Mountain West for another conference that goes belly-up would be an infinitely bad look. There is always the possibility that, if the Big 12 cannot lure another Pac 12 team away, they'd invite SDSU to join their ranks starting in 2024, although a lot of dominoes have to fall for that to happen.

That’s the doomsday scenario. I mean, the Pac 12 is nicknamed “The Conference of Champions” because it’s won more national titles across all sports than anyone else in the country. In fact, it’s the only conference to win 500 NCAA championships. It’s unthinkable to believe an organization with that level of success could run itself into the ground so thoroughly.

Yet that’s the crossroads at which the Pac 12 finds itself. Mr. Kliavkoff, add the Aztecs sooner rather than later. Much like Obi-Wan Kenobi, they’re likely your only hope.