The Padres have played 40 games. They've won exactly half of them. Last year at this time they were just a game off that pace at 19-21.
So why does this season feel exponentially better than last season?
Nobody is going to argue the 2024 roster is, top to bottom, more talented than the previous installment. That '23 club had a future Hall of Famer in Juan Soto and an eventual Cy Young winner in Blake Snell. It's almost impossible to replace pure talents like them.
But I sure as heck will argue this team is superior. It's far from perfect but the mix is better. The chemistry is better. The vibes are better. And, because of all that, there is reason for optimism in San Diego. Now that we've moved out of the realm of "small sample size" here are five things we can say with a fair amount of conviction about the current San Diego Padres:
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1. With Super Suarez, the 9th inning is in MUCH better shape
Robert Suarez is adding his name to the rich history of elite closers to play for the Padres, and he’s doing it in a way that would make Goose Gossage proud. Suarez leads the league with 12 saves without blowing a single chance and he’s doing it throwing almost nothing but fastballs. Suarez scrapped his cutter and slider completely and is now throwing his 4-seam fastball 80% of the time (with a changeup and sinker sprinkled in for fun).
It's the best professional decision he’s ever made. Suarez’s heater is averaging nearly 99 MPH and opposing batters have all of four hits against it all season. But what makes him most valuable to the Padres is his willingness to take the ball for however long they need him. Suarez already had a 4-out save, a pair of 5-out saves, and even a 4-out win against the Dodgers.
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Compare that to Josh Hader, who got more than three outs exactly once in his Padres tenure and that came in the National League Division Series when EVERYONE goes outside their comfort zone. Suarez has figured out who he is as a pitcher and his team-first mentality has added a level of appreciation and togetherness to the clubhouse.
2. The starting rotation is talented but too thin
Dylan Cease is going to be an All-Star and probably finish in the top-5 of the Cy Young balloting. After him this rotation has a lot of question marks, wither due to health or inconsistency.
Yu Darvish came back from the IL looking like we expect Yu Darvish to look so that’s encouraging. Joe Musgrove was starting to round into form when he went on the Injured List with an elbow issue (Randy Vasquez has shown good stuff but gotten mixed results filling in for them both). Michael King has alternated between brilliance and mediocrity. Matt Waldron’s knuckleball can be unhittable or a liability.
When everyone is throwing like they’re capable this rotation is scary good. The problem is, they haven’t all been going well at the same time really all season long. If Yu stays healthy and Joe comes back with no ill effects this is a playoff-caliber rotation. If not, the Friars are going to have to find another starter somewhere, which brings us to …
3. AJ Preller seems to be figuring it out
To reiterate something I said in the off-season, the Padres general manager is without question one of the best evaluators of talent in the game today. The way he and his scouting department continue to restock the farm system with legitimate ballplayers is rare and needs to be acknowledged.
Where AJ has had a blind spot is understanding the interpersonal relationship part of building a team. He’s been great at collecting talent. That talent has not always come together as a cohesive unit because personalities haven’t meshed. But, with the moves he’s made in the last six months, he may have turned a corner.
King, Cease, Jhony Brito, and Kyle Higashioka all worked themselves seamlessly into the Padres clubhouse in a way Hader and Soto never really did. Preller took it to another level with the addition of Luis Arraez.
Not only is he one of the most disruptive hitters in the league but he’s simply a great clubhouse presence. It’s not a coincidence that he showed up and the Padres immediately won two straight series on the road.
AJ’s last three big trades look like home runs from a talent AND chemistry perspective. If he can do that again to add to the rotation (and bullpen) then we will really be onto something.
4. Something is seriously wrong with Xander Bogaerts
The numbers are downright ugly. Even if he didn’t sign a $280 million contract what Bogaerts has been doing would be unacceptable. He’s simply too good a hitter to have gone 40 games with a .560 OPS.
The scary part here is it’s not like he’s suddenly striking out a ton (although there is a small increase in punchout rate). What’s concerning is all the soft contact. Xander’s exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit percentage have all dipped dramatically compared to his time in Boston, where he was a four-time Silver Slugger winner. Bogaerts is in the bottom 4% of Major League Baseball in hitting the ball hard.
He says he’s not injured. It would almost be more comforting if he was because then we could count on him getting better as he heals. Bogaerts’ lack of production has simply been weird and it’s starting to look like it’s not a fluke, which is not an insignificant concern for the Padres moving forward.
5. Jurickson Profar is better (for this team) than Juan Soto
Soto is one of the greatest offensive forces the game has ever seen. He just didn’t fit in San Diego. Profar has been a league-average player for most of his 11 big league seasons. He has been a godsend for the Friars, who actually win MORE with him than they do with Soto. Don’t believe me?
With Soto the Padres went 112-107, a .511 winning percentage. With Profar over the years the Friars have gone 240-204, a stellar winning percentage of .541.
The back of Profar’s baseball card will never hold a candle to Soto’s pure production but … although it’s not an official stat … Pro leads the league in VAR (Vibes Above Replacement). This season he’s off to the best start of his career and, although he’s not going to keep an OPS above .900 through September, something about his presence makes the Padres better. As far as I’m concerned he can stick around as long as he wants to.
LISTEN: With NBC 7 San Diego's Darnay Tripp and Derek Togerson behind the mic, On Friar will cover all things San Diego Padres. Interviews, analysis, behind-the-scenes...the ups, downs, and everything in between. Tap here to find On Friar wherever you listen to podcasts.
