The Padres are not known for throwing around a ton of cash. Well, not for established Major Leaguers.
So it’s intriguing that the Friars are making a push to sign free agent 1st baseman Eric Hosmer, who is going to get PAID as one of this year’s most sought-after commodities.
Hosmer is entering his age-28 season, the very beginning of his prime. He is very likely going to get a deal in the $150-$200 million range, and that alone is reason to wonder what in the world San Diego is doing in the conversation. The Padres have never given out a deal worth more than $83 million (to current 1st baseman Wil Myers) so the prospect of them suddenly throwing around Yankees money is raising more than a few eyebrows around the league.
On the off-chance that the Padres do end up signing Hosmer … and it is a VERY off chance … will the move make sense for them? And why are they interested in the first place? Let’s do a little exploring of the Pros and Cons.
PRO: Hosmer Is What We Think He Is
Over the last three seasons Hosmer’s offensive numbers have been as consistent as a metronome. He’s a 20-25 HR, 90-100 RBI, .815 OPS guy year in and year out. He’s also been remarkably durable, missing just four games in three seasons, something very important to a franchise that has had more than its share of injury problems in recent years.
CON: Hosmer Is No More Than We Think He Is
Consistency is a wonderful thing but for a franchise like the Padres that can’t afford to miss on a massive contract without it setting the team back several years paying $20 million per over eight seasons is a big gamble. Are Hosmer’s numbers, which are very good but not great, going to justify that expense?
PRO: Hosmer Rakes in the East Village
In 12 career games at Petco Park … that’s eight as a member of the Royals, three in the World Baseball Classic, and the 2016 All-Star Game … Hosmer has a .458 batting average, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 12 runs, and a ridiculous 1.313 OPS. He is one of the rare left-handed hitters with pop that likes playing in Downtown San Diego.
CON: 67% of That Came Against Padres Pitching
As savvy twitter folks point out (I’m looking at you, Ghost) this is your classic “small sample size.” While it is encouraging that Hosmer got even better against really good competition in the All-Star Game and WBC and he just might see the ball really well at Petco Park it’s irresponsible to suggest he’s going to turn into Ty Cobb playing 81 home games in San Diego.
PRO: Hosmer is A Great Clubhouse Presence
Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez are the unquestioned leaders of the Royals team that went to the World Series twice and won it once. He’s universally respected and just the kind of guy the Padres are going to want around when their bumper crop of prospects matures. That’s very likely the big underlying reason Padres General Manager A.J. Preller is so interested in Hosmer. It might not be for his on-field production, but for him to be the guy that drives the bus when this club is ready to compete for championships.
CON: That’s A Big Gamble to Take
Hoping Hosmer can help mold the young Padres into contenders is assuming all the pieces they have in the system are, indeed, championship-caliber. While things look pretty good and the farm is definitely stacked most of what this team will be in the future is still untested at the big league level so you might be handing over a whole lot of cash for a good dude that has no chance at a title with the surrounding cast.
PRO: Defensively The Padres Get Better
Hosmer has won four Gold Glove awards.
CON: Defensively The Padres Get Worse
If Hosmer is at 1st base … where do they put Wil Myers? Myers landed at 1st because he was not a very good defensive outfielder and he moved to the outfield because he was not a very good defensive catcher. He might have the ability to play 3rd base (if Yangervis Solarte is dealt) but that’s a downgrade. The most likely scenario is move him to left field and hope that having a human greyhound like Manuel Margot in center is able to mask Myers’ defensive deficiencies.
PRO: Hosmer’s Signing Sends a Positive Message to Padres Fans
Brining on Hosmer on that big deal would be a nice olive branch to extend to the Friar Faithful that this team believes it’s getting close to being in the playoff mix.
CON: Haven’t We Seen That Before?
See: Padres, 2015
PRO: This Signing Adds A Veteran Presence Without Touching the System
The Padres have put a ton of resources into building from within and there is a fear among fans that have been through this before that they’ll get impatient and start trading away good young players again. Adding Hosmer would bring in a really good player and not sacrifice the top-level kids.
CON: That’s Not Entirely True
The Royals extended Hosmer a qualifying offer, meaning if the Padres sign him they’ll likely have to give up their 3rd-highest MLB Draft pick. This year, since they have a Competitive Balance pick, it would be their 2nd round selection (46th overall). That’s a spot where they could potentially find a future star and we’ve seen that Preller loves prospects so much he should be on an episode of Hoarders. Adding Hosmer also means Josh Naylor, one of their top prospects and a 1st baseman, will be blocked and becomes a trade chip.
That kind of scratches the surface of this idea. Odds are it’s not going to happen but hey … it’s fun to talk about baseball during November!
