PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 21: Juan Soto #22 of the San Diego Padres reacts after hitting a single during the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game three of the National League Championship Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 21, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The numbers speak for themselves. In Major League Baseball playoff history, there have been 91 best-of-7 series where a team took a 3-1 lead. Those teams won 77 times. That's an 85% success rate and not the kind of situation the Padres really want to find themselves in.
San Diego and Philly are extremely good and extremely similar. So, here are the three reasons the Padres will even this National League Championship Series on Saturday night, guaranteeing at least one more playoff game at Petco Park ... and three reasons they won't.
WHY THE PADRES WILL WIN: The Falter Against Our Stars
Phillies starter Bailey Falter is making his first career postseason appearance. He's got good stuff, but doesn't seem to like pitching at Citizens Bank Park. The 25-year-old lefty has a 5.49 ERA at home (vs. a 2.42 mark on the road). There are only a handful of Friars who've faced him, but they've had success. Juan Soto is hitting .375 against him. Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham both singles in their only at-bats against him. And then there's Josh Bell, who's 4-for-5 with a double and two homers against Falter. The rookie could be in for a rough night.
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WHY THE PADRES WILL LOSE: They Counter With Clevinjured
Mike Clevinger has been dealing with a variety of injures, most recently a knee ailment. In his only postseason outing he got hit hard in Game 1 of the NLDS by the Dodgers. He and manager Bob Melvin both say he's been having a good week health-wise but if he's still dinged up, or just rusty from a long layoff, the Phillies potent offense could get up big enough early to put this one on ice.
WHY THE PADRES WILL WIN: Mashing Manny Machado
Manny Machado is an MVP candidate for good reason. In the Padres six playoff wins he's hitting .417 and he's homered in five straight postseason series, tied with Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton for the longest such streak in baseball. Against a young lefty Manny could have a good night, and when Manny has a good night the Padres have a good night.
WHY THE PADRES WILL LOSE: Middling Manny Machado
Manny Machado is an MVP candidate for good reason. He carries the San Diego offense. In the Padres four playoff losses he's 1-for-16. Against a talented guy he hasn't seen before it could take a while to adjust and if he's not ripping line drives around the yard the Friars have all kinds of trouble scoring.
WHY THE PADRES WILL WIN: Super San Diego Streak Stoppers
After their first three losses during this postseason (Wild Card Game 2, NLDS Game 1, NLCS Game 1) the Padres have won the next day. With a manager like Melvin and his steady hand in the clubhouse the Friars have avoided letting a series get away from them with a long skid. That ability to bounce back will get them even in the series again.
WHY THE PADRES WILL LOSE: Hunting A Red October
Citizens Bank Park has been very good to the Phillies. In this year's playoffs they're 3-0 at home and average seven runs a game. Since this ballpark opened in 2004 (the same year as Petco Park) they've gone 19-9 in playoff games in this yard, including a 7-2 mark in LCS games. This crowd makes a difference this time of year and it will do so again in Game 4.
MAKE UP YOUR MIND DEREK WHO WINS???
Padres. Duh.
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