NBC 7’s Dana Williams and Meteorologist Sheena Parveen break down what is needed for a hurricane to form, and the likelihood of it happening in San Diego.
Hurricane Ian has been called a “500-year flooding event” by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Ian made landfall in Florida on Wednesday, bringing devastating winds and flooding along with it. After being downgraded to a tropical storm, it strengthened back into a hurricane on Thursday with movement toward Georgia and the Carolinas.
It has left people in San Diego wondering, how likely is a hurricane here?
NBC 7’s Dana Williams and Sheena Parveen broke down the reasons why, Sheena said, a hurricane in our region is “very unlikely.”
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“The answer’s pretty simple,” Parveen said.
1. Our water temperature is too cold.
A hurricane needs water that is 79 degrees or warmer to form. In San Diego, our warmest water temperature in the summer is around 75 degrees, Parveen explained. Comparatively, the water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is closer to 80 degrees, with some areas closer to 90.
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2. You need favorable atmospheric conditions.
Say what? Parveen added that if the water is not warm enough for a hurricane to form, then it does not matter what the atmospheric conditions are.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization, a hurricane needs an “unstable” atmosphere to form, including differences in temperature.
3. You need a tropical wave or area of low pressure.
Similar to the point above, if a tropical wave develops, “it is basically going to die off because our water temperature is too cold,” Parveen said.
All of this doesn’t mean there haven’t been hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean before. According to Parveen, there have been 16 named storms this year, including eight that have developed into hurricanes.
“You probably didn’t know because most of them are down to our south,” Parveen said, adding there is a storm off the west coast near Mexico right now. “It’s Tropical Storm Orlene, believe it or not it’s way down to our south.”
Parveen added Tropical Storm Orlene will likely impact the Cabo San Lucas area, but will remain relatively far away from San Diego.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Orlene had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It forecast that Orlene would become a hurricane Friday night or Saturday.
