San Diego State

No. 1 Seed for SDSU? Margin for Error Could be Slim

The Aztecs have positioned themselves well for the Big Dance, but that could be change if they aren't careful.

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The Aztecs are undefeated, and the nation is taking notice. Brian Dutcher's team has made steady jumps up the polls all the way up to No. 7, and it seems like in the last week people have really starting to talk about San Diego State.

Now that January has arrived - March feels a whole lot closer and that means the NCAA Tournament isn't too far off. The Aztecs have a legit chance to get a really high seed. ESPN Bracketology Expert Joe Lunardi has them as the No. 2 seed in the West Region. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports currently has them taking the top seed in the South Region.

The Aztecs would have to really fall apart to not make the Big Dance at this point. However, it wouldn't take much for them to slip in the polls, and in terms of their projected seed.

While they do have a bunch of good wins - at BYU and Utah State, and against Iowa and Creighton - there aren't many opportunities to pad their resume the rest of the way. That's because the Mountain West
just isn't a very good conference this year.

San Diego State has been No. 1 in the NET Rankings, which will be used to factor in tournament seeding by the NCAA Selection Committee. There are only three other Mountain West teams in the Top-100. Utah State is second best in the conference, and they sit way down at No. 73.

"I don't know how important a seed is this year."

College Hoops stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives SDSU a 6.4 percent chance of finishing the regular season undefeated - so the expectation is that the Aztecs will slip up at some point. If they do so against a bad team, that will hurt them. And it's something they've already narrowly avoided. If Malachi Flynn hadn't hit the game winner at home against San Jose State, there's good chance the Aztecs aren't a Top-10 team right now.

The margin for error could be slim for Dutcher's squad in terms of their shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Then again - that might not really matter.

"I don't know how important a seed is this year," College Basketball analyst Jeff Goodman said. "I think it's less important than ever."

Goodman says this year there just isn't much of a gap between the teams in the Top-25. We've already seen the No. 1 team in the country lose five times. The Big Dance is bound to be wildly unpredictable this season.

The good news is - it looks like the Aztecs will be part of the madness. The question between now and then is whether they will they do enough to stay on the national radar, and in the conversation as one of the best teams in the country.

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