Too Much Too Soon

Matt Forte is a workhorse. He proved it at Tulane and he's proving it for the Bears. Forte is a fantasy owner's dream. He is a true feature back and doesn't come off the field in short-yardage or third-down situations. Forte has appeared on the injury report just once in the first five weeks. He was listed as probable in Week 2 with "ankle soreness."

But since the Bears' season opener, Forte's yards-per-carry average has dropped sharply. On his last 61 totes, Forte holds a Cedric Benson-like 2.7 YPC. In Forte's last two games, he's mustered only 2.3 yards a carry. And in one of those contests he was going against the Lions.

As a senior for the 4-8 Green Wave, Forte carried the ball 361 times in 12 games. That's an average of 31 carries per week. Forte then had to prepare for January's Senior Bowl, where he took MVP honors. Less than a month later came the NFL Combine, where Forte was clocked at 4.46 in the forty-yard dash after an excrutiatingly intense three weeks of preparation.

Through five weeks this season, Forte ranks second in the NFL in carries. No player in the league has touched the football as many times on offense. That's awesome and all, for now. And Forte needs to be used in fantasy leagues on the Georgia Dome turf this week.

But there has got to be concern that Forte is headed for a rookie wall. The second-round pick's rapid descent in per-play productivity is alarming. And like a player on a "short week" preparing for a Thursday night game after playing the prior Sunday, Forte is essentially playing on a "short season" after following up a massive senior-year workload with a months-long preparation period for the NFL Draft.

We saw rookie breakdowns happen late last year with Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson, and they didn't take nearly the beating Forte has early this season. The Bears are also returning slide-and-glide rookie left tackle Chris Williams from injury, and his lack of upper-body strength could be a downgrade for the run game once he surpasses John St. Clair on the depth chart. The Bears also have yet to begin their annual two-game set with the Vikings.

This guy's recommendation? Sell Matt Forte high and pick up Kevin Jones. Forte barely generated yards in Week 5, but did score two touchdowns and your fantasy opponent only cares about points. The guess here is that Jones starts at least three to four games for the Bears down the stretch, if Forte's lack of productivity doesn't usher Jones into a running-back-by-committee situation first.

Important Game-Time Decisions for Week 6

Arms
Aaron Rodgers - Will start and has favorable matchup at struggling SEA.
Carson Palmer - Could be active backup, but Ryan Fitzpatrick gets start.
Matt Hasselbeck - Ex-Brown Charlie Frye set to start against Green Bay.
Jon Kitna - Dan Orlovsky to make NFL starting debut Sunday at Vikings.
Brian Griese - Likely to be Bucs' inactive third QB against the Panthers.

Wides
Marques Colston - Likely to play, but beware Nnamdi Asomugha factor.
Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams - Both expected to start at MIN on Sunday.
Roddy White - Needs medical clearance to start after practice collision.
Chris Chambers - Won't be in the lineup after missing practice all week.
Laveranues Coles - You can safely play him in matchup with Cincinnati.
Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice - Berrian likely to play; Rice is less certain.
Vincent Jackson - Will play and is a well recommended option this week.
Kevin Curtis - Will be 'limited' if he goes; use him after the Birds' bye.
Eddie Royal - Full blown game-day decision; isn't someone to count on.
Deion Branch - Branch won't play Sunday, but isn't worth dropping either.
Anthony Gonzalez - Was concussed in Week 5, but is expected to play.
James Jones - Look for Jordy Nelson to be GB's third receiver in Seattle.
Brandon Lloyd - He's certain to be out after having no practice all week.
Laurent Robinson - Robinson could return after Falcons' Week 7 bye.
Domenik Hixon - Is a fourth receiver again, but expected to return kicks.
David Patten - Unlikely to play and has plummeted down depth chart.

Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson - Will start, should have solid game Sunday night.
Willis McGahee - Fully expected to start in ideal matchup against Indy.
Darren McFadden - Justin Fargas is the best bet in Oakland's backfield.
Laurence Maroney - Probably will play, but not worthy of a fantasy start.
LaMont Jordan - Doubtful listing means Jordan's likely out with bad calf.
Antonio Pittman - Brian Leonard continues as Steven Jackson's backup.

Ends
Kellen Winslow - Odds are Winslow plays on MNF despite bloated balls.
Jeremy Shockey - Will be in a visor Sunday, but could be back in Week 7.

Legs
Shayne Graham - Expected to be available for field goals but no kickoffs.
Lawrence Tynes - Off the injury report, but no sure thing to kick on MNF.

Already Ruled Out for Week 6

Arms
None of significance.

Wides
Anquan Boldin - Steve Breaston will draw the start Sunday against DAL.
Joey Galloway - Old man finally making progress from his sprained foot.
Reggie Brown - Look for rookie DeSean Jackson to have a big day @ SF.
Mike Walker - Chronic knee issues catching up to early-week sleeper.
D.J. Hackett - This is Dwayne Jarrett's time to shine as third receiver.
Drew Bennett, Keenan Burton, Dane Looker - Donnie Avery is starting.
Joe Jurevicius - Has begun light jogging, but lacks timetable for return.

Backs
Brian Westbrook - Eagles made wise decision to hold him out thru bye.
Selvin Young - Michael Pittman likely to be feature back against Jaguars.
Ryan Torain - Returns soon, but expectations should be guarded initially.
Carnell Williams - PUP'd running back uncertain to contribute this year.
Chris Taylor - Ahman Green continues to operate as Texans No. 2 back.

Ends
Tony Scheffler - Nate Jackson to replace him, but is a weak fantasy bet.
Randy McMichael - McMike has been lost for the season w/broken leg.

Legs
Mike Nugent - Apparently the bye week didn't do Nugent's leg any good.
Martin Gramatica - Rookie Taylor Mehlhaff is back; Gramatica is on I.R.

Week 6 Matchups to Exploit

Derrick Mason @ Colts
Time: 1:00PM ET

The Colts have lost starting CB Kelvin Hayden indefinitely due to a knee injury. Indy will turn to 5'8/180-pound usual nickel back Tim Jennings at left corner, possibly for the rest of 2008. For the same reason Dallas let Jacques Reeves walk this past offseason, Jennings is not a popular man in Colts land because he gives receivers tons of space to operate in off-man coverage. While the Ravens may not throw more than 20-24 times in this game as the power running attack dominates a sheepishly small Colts front seven, when Joe Flacco does wing it the ball will likely go in Mason's direction. Mason lacks homerun speed, but few receivers are as adept underneath. He will exploit Jennings' cushion and should be good for 6-8 receptions.

Justin Fargas @ Saints
Time: 1:00PM ET

Interim coach Tom Cable's comments all week seemed to indicate that Fargas will be the clear-cut lead back in the Raiders' backfield to start off. Fargas' groin pull cost him two games, but not his spot atop the depth chart and Darren McFadden (turf toe) was unable to practice fully all week. He is listed as questionable, while Fargas is back to full strength. Cable was Oakland's offensive line coach prior to his promotion and knows which back runs the best behind his front five. Fargas isn't at all a bad bet for 100 yards and a score against the Sedrick Ellis-less Saints Sunday.

Santana Moss vs. Rams
Time: 1:00PM ET

Under new head coach Jim Haslett, the Rams plan to take an aggressive approach on defense going forward. That means more blitzing by linebackers Will Witherspoon and Pisa Tinoisamoa and increased single coverage on wide receivers. The problem with that is St. Louis lacks anyone that can cover. Jason Craft, who's filling in for injured Tye Hill at left corner, will be mostly assigned to Santana Moss' side on Sunday. Craft was cut early this season by the Saints after getting burnt repeatedly in their Week 2 game against...the Redskins. Jason Campbell is likely to throw to Craft's side all day and Moss should benefit with a huge rebound game following his catch-less Week 5 outing.

Vincent Jackson vs. Patriots
Time: 8:15PM ET

An ankle injury will sideline Chargers top receiver Chris Chambers for this one, and while Craig Davis will be Chambers' direct replacement in the starting lineup, taking over as San Diego's go-to wide receiver will be the 6'5/241-pound Jackson. Jackson splits to the left side of the Chargers' formation in two-receiver sets, which the Bolts frequently employ, and will draw Patriots CB Ellis Hobbs in coverage there. Jackson has eight inches and 46 pounds on New England's right corner. If Philip Rivers catches the two one-on-one in a red-zone situation, there's a better than even bet that Jackson will capitalize.

Week 6 Matchups to Avoid

Chris Perry @ Jets
Time: 1:00PM ET

It's easy to say sit Perry because he's playing so badly (2.8 yards-per-carry average, five fumbles through five games), but also is worth noting that this could be the game that costs him his starting job. Jets nose tackle Kris Jenkins is back to 100 percent following a bye and New York's run defense ranks fifth in the NFL, yielding just 75.5 yards a week and 3.1 yards a carry. Eliminate the yardage they surrendered with Jenkins missing in the second half of Week 3 against San Diego due to a back injury and the Jets are a top-three unit. Perry is unlikely to be successful on the ground and Cedric Benson has emerged as a threat for early-down carries. Perry is hardly worth a flex play and could become worthless fantasy material soon.

Marvin Harrison vs. Ravens
Time: 1:00PM ET

The Colts will probably end up throwing 36-40 times in this game because of Baltimore's stout run defense, but Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark are all better bets for production than Marvin. Harrison goes against Ravens LCB Chris McAlister, who opponents have done very little damage against of late. Because Baltimore is so thin after McAlister with Samari Rolle (neck) and Fabian Washington (shoulder) both out for Sunday, most of the Ravens' problems will likely be to Wayne's side and in the middle of the field. Clark and Gonzalez will work the slot and face special teams types in coverage. It will be a surprise if Harrison registers more than 50 total yards.

Eddie Royal vs. Jaguars
Time: 4:05PM ET

After several reports surfaced that Royal had no chance of facing Jacksonville early in the week, coach Mike Shanahan surprisingly announced that he expected Royal to play. Royal did very little in practices and was unable to do horizontal movement. There is reason to believe that Shanahan said Royal would play simply to throw the Jaguars off and prevent them from being able to formulate an all-out game plan aimed at stopping Brandon Marshall. Selvin Young (groin) and Tony Scheffler (groin) have already been ruled out, so Marshall would be Jacksonville's only real concern. I wouldn't anticipate Royal playing against the Jaguars or being effective at all if he's active. The position Royal plays requires him to go in motion often and it will be difficult to get out of his breaks with what's believed to be a badly sprained ankle.

Donald Driver @ Seahawks
Time: 4:15PM ET

Driver's season-long struggle is likely to continue Sunday when he squares off against Seahawks LCB Marcus Trufant. Trufant got paid in the offseason, but his play hasn't slacked off. With Plaxico Burress suspended in Week 5 and Amani Toomer supposedly set to be the Giants' "No. 1 receiver" in that game, Trufant held him to four catches. The Packers will likely have much more success targeting Greg Jennings opposite Driver and rookie Jordy Nelson in the slot. James Jones (knee, questionable) is highly unlikely to play, or else he'd be a sneaky one-week WR3 start. Nelson is another fine option if you're digging deep. The Seahawks are shuffling cornerbacks and lack of continuity in a secondary is always promising for that defense's opponent.

Reply Absolutely Not to the Following Questions

> Was Kimbo Slice for real?

> Will the Lions win this week?

> Is Robert Meachem a good play with Marques Colston returning?

> Does Derek Anderson have much longer as the Browns' starting QB?

> Should Tim Tebow leave for the NFL early?

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