What do you do when your No. 1 pick goes belly up in the season opener? Some fantasy football owners would panic. Their eyes would widen in fear and, much like Veronica Cartwright at the end of "Alien," their seasons would meet an untimely end.
The shrewd owner, however, knows that while such a blow is extremely painful it doesn't have to be season ending. You can survive and battle for a league title even though the player you identified as the key figure in your championship quest has been lost.
Tom Brady owners had to deal with that after the Patriots' star quarterback was lost for the season with a knee injury in the Week 1 win over the Chiefs. So how did owners in our two national events respond?
They went after Matt Cassel.
With a vengence.
Between the two events (one a 14-team format and the other a 12-team format), Cassel was acquired in 99 leagues last week. And he rarely went cheaply. Although one owner in an online satellite league was able to acquire Cassel for a $78 bid, in most leagues he went for considerably higher prices.
One owner in the 12-team NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship invested nearly his entire $1,000 free-agent budget, spending $980 to pick up New England's replacement for Brady. That was the highest price Cassel went for in the 12-team format.
U.S. & World
In the 14-team National Fantasy Football Championship, Cassel topped out at $851 among the free agents acquired last week. Another NFFC owner paid $801 to grab him.
Unfortunately for those owners, Cassel's production in his first start didn't match the heavy prices he generated in the frenzied free-agent bidding. The Patriots kept things conservative in their win over the Jets and Cassel passed for only 165 yards and 0 TDs. So from a fantasy perspective, the owners who not only invested a heavy price in Cassel but also started him against the Jets got burned.
But it is a long season and given the talent around him, Cassel should produce some quality games in the weeks to come as he continues to get adjusted to his new role.
One of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football is what pick in the first round is more valuable. Is the No. 1 pick the best? Or is there another spot in the opening round that can produce fantasy success?
In the NFFC and NBC events, we have Third Round Reversal (3RR) which we believe enables the playing field to be more level and not give the owners with an early round pick a distinct advantage. We certainly some that come to fruition in the opening week of the season.
Rob Benetti, the 2006 NFFC champion, has provided a draft slot scoring comparison based on the average points scored in the first week. The results are certainly interesting. Here is the breakdown for both events after Week 1:
NFFC
Pick 1 - 113.70 average points.
Pick 2 - 129.84
Pick 3 - 120.10
Pick 4 - 123.33
Pick 5 - 107.23
Pick 6 - 116.93
Pick 7 - 107.34
Pick 8 - 114.12
Pick 9 - 106.54
Pick 10 - 113.72
Pick 11 - 113.88
Pick 12 - 109.50
Pick 13 - 114.63
Pick 14 - 102.22
NBC
Pick 1 - 114.21
Pick 2 - 122.94
Pick 3 - 124.47
Pick 4 - 109.72
Pick 5 - 115.75
Pick 6 - 117.25
Pick 7 - 120.86
Pick 8 - 115.23
Pick 9 - 110.13
Pick 10 - 119.66
Pick 11 - 121.36
Pick 12 - 124.49
In the 14-team NFFC event, the second pick provided the strongest scoring output - thanks in large part presumably to Adrian Peterson's strong first game. Meanwhile, the last pick of the first round provided the lowest point total in the opening week.
But was the back end of the draft really a bad spot? One has to wonder when taking into consideration how the last pick in the 12-team NBC event produced the best results in the opening week. Meanwhile, fourth pick had the lowest Week 1 score, likely due to many owners feeling the pain inflicted by Joseph Addai's terrible performance against the Bears.
Will these trends continue? Stay tuned.
