San Diego State opens the season as a 14-point underdog at #13 Stanford.
Usually one would say the Aztecs are fighting for respect but a betting line like that in a game like this … one where the team that’s won 32 games the last three seasons and beat the Cardinal last year is a two touchdown long shot … suggests they’re not trying to get respect.
They’re trying to get recognized.
SDSU has a chance to beat another Power Five Conference team on the road and run their winning streak against the Pac-12 to four straight. But to do that they’ll have to deal with one of the most high-powered offenses in the nation. And that leads us to our Keys to the Game:
Key #1 = Don’t Let the Love Flow
Bryce Love is very likely the best collegiate running back in the country. Last year he was the Heisman Trophy runner-up after rushing for 2,118 yards with an 8.1 yard-per-carry average … and he missed an entire game with an injury. Love carved up the Aztecs defense for 184 yards and two touchdowns and that was on just 13 carries. As Rocky Long said you can’t stop Love, but if you can keep him from going nuts like the 301 yards he heaped on Arizona State you should be OK.
Key #2 = Control the Ball
One way of neutralizing Love is to simply not allow him to touch the ball. The Aztecs are going to try to put together long drives that result in points so the Cardinal can’t put their offense on the field. It worked brilliantly in last year’s 20-17 win in San Diego when the Aztecs had the ball for 41:14. With four starters back on a very good offensive line SDSU will have a chance to let junior running back Juwan Washington and senior quarterback Christian Chapman keep moving the chains methodically.
Key #3 = Dominate on Special Teams
Here’s a spot where the Aztecs can earn an edge. Washington already has three career kickoff return touchdowns and kicker John Barron likely has an NFL future. A big play can swing a game like this and those big plays very often come in special teams. If the Aztecs can be the ones to make that play they’ll have a chance to win.
Derek’s Pick =
Stanford is very good. They might win the Pac-12. But I have a feeling the Aztecs have another upset in them. This game will come down to a big turnover at a bad time and it will be SDSU that forces it. Next week look for them in the Top-25.
Final Score: Aztecs 27, Cardinal 24
