We have mercifully made it past the 3rd preseason game of the NFL’s exhibition season.
There weren’t going to be any starters playing in fake football Week 4 anyway but with Texans running back Lamar Miller tearing his knee up everyone in the league should be sufficiently scared enough to keep their top 30 or so guys from dressing until the real games begin.
So, since we basically know what everyone looks like now, it’s about that time to make some potentially reckless predictions about what’s going to happen in 2019. Who wins divisions? Who gets a Wild Card spot? Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami in February?
We’re gonna try to look into the future and provide answers in the 2019 NBC 7 SportsWrap NFL Preview, starting with a breakdown of each division (* = Wild Card team):
AFC WEST
1) Chiefs 12-4
2) Chargers 10-6*
3) Broncos 7-9
4) Raiders 5-11
The AFC West is still top-heavy but the teams on the back end are not as bad as they were a year ago. The Raiders added plenty of pieces and are a lot more talented, but their schedule is a monster. Look no further than their 6-week stretch where they have road games against the Vikings and Colts, then a “home” game against the Bears in London, a bye, and two more road games with the Packers and Texans. If they do any better than 1-4 in that stretch it’ll be a miracle. The Broncos added Joe Flacco at QB but he’s probably not a major upgrade over Case Keenum. Denver, however, did improve its defense and 1st round pick Noah Fant is going to be an immediate impact player at tight end. A lot of folks are saying the Chargers are legitimate championship contenders but I just don’t see it. At the skill positions they’re stacked. However, losing Derwin James for half the season is going to hurt a ton and even if Melvin Gordon ends his holdout (which I don’t see happening any time soon) the Chargers won’t be as explosive on offense because they have an offensive line that is, at best, below average and, at worst, terrifyingly atrocious. It’s going to be the line that once again keeps them out of the Super Bowl. It pains me greatly to say the Chiefs are winning another division because any team that elects to keep Tyreek Hill on its roster disgusts me. Patrick Mahomes looks like he’s going to be every bit as good as he was a year ago so Kansas City’s offense will be elite. On defense, however, they have issues. They brought in Frank Clark (another guy with off-the-field baggage) and he’ll keep the pass rush humming after letting Justin Houston leave. But their linebacking corps is average and their safeties, with the addition of Tyrann Mathieu, could be good their corners are just bad. That’s not a good combination in today’s pass-happy NFL but their the Chiefs will be able to simply out-score enough teams to win the West.
AFC SOUTH
1) Texans 8-8
2) Jaguars 8-8
3) Titans 8-8
4) Colts 7-9
This division is the most difficult for me to get a handle on. It certainly looked a lot different on Saturday morning. Indianapolis was the favorite to not just win the South but had a good chance for a first-round bye in the playoffs. Then their years of mishandling of Andrew Luck caught up with them. Indy still has a solid roster and won’t fall apart completely but Jacoby Brissett, while a capable NFL quarterback, is no Andrew Luck. The Titans always seem to be right around .500 and needing help in the last two weeks to make the playoffs. I think they’ll be in that same boat again. Marcus Mariota is what he is at this point: a talented athlete but not a top-level NFL QB. The problem is that also describes backup Ryan Tannehill so Tennessee will be fighting tooth and nail for a post-season berth again. I honestly don’t know what to make of Jacksonville. Nick Foles is a MASSIVE upgrade over Blake Bortles but he doesn’t have a real number one wide receiver to work with. The Jags defense has the pieces to be one of the best in the NFL but as we saw last year also has the ability to check out mentally. If head coach Doug Marrone can keep everyone on the same page the Jags will be a playoff threat. The Texans are never going to learn they need to build an offensive line in front of Deshaun Watson. That kid is electric and can make plays all over the field but he spends half the game running for his life. Houston’s defense lost a ton in the secondary and Jadeveon Clowney has not signed his franchise tag yet. My gut tells me Watson and J.J. Watt can make enough plays to take the division in what will probably be the most complicated tiebreaking procedure ever.
AFC NORTH
1) Steelers 11-5
2) Ravens 10-6*
3) Browns 9-7
4) Bengals 4-12
The Bengals are going to be a mess. Cincinnati has a new head coach in Zac Taylor who has never been a head coach at any level ever. Their offensive line is a colander and Andy Dalton is going to lose his job to rookie Ryan Finley. All the hype is with Cleveland and their roster is stacked. However … the Browns are not ready to be a division champion yet. The Browns have a downright scary pass rush but their secondary does have holes aside from Denzel Ward, who was a stud as a rookie. Freddie Kitchens has also never been a head coach but he was extremely good as the offensive coordinator last year and definitely has a good relationship with Baker Mayfield. Remember, though, that Mayfield still has not started a full season’s worth of NFL games. Sure, he has weapons everywhere and a decent offensive line but the bottom line is the Browns are seriously talented but seriously young and inexperience is not going to carry them past Baltimore or Pittsburgh this year. The Ravens won the division in 2018 with a suffocating defense that got worse and better over the off-season. Terrell Suggs and C.J Mosley are gone from the front seven but Baltimore might have the deepest secondary in football. They have a stable of cornerbacks and somehow upgraded from Eric Weddle to Earl Thomas at safety. On offense they’re going old school, committing to the ground game. Baltimore might be the only team in the league that runs on at least 55% of its plays this year and they have a boatload of backs to team with QB Lamar Jackson and grind it out. As it usually is the class of the North is in Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost serious talent in Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown but they also subtracted a pair of major headaches from the locker room. James Conner emerged as a productive back and the Steelers always seem to draft and develop receivers so the offense shouldn’t suffer much of a dip. Defensively, Pittsburgh is going to ruin a lot of Sundays for opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers pass rush is obscene. But they addressed their biggest issue when they drafted linebacker Devin Bush in the 1st round. The loss of Ryan Shazier was massive. Bush has the same kind of makeup and is expected to bring the whole unit back to the top of the NFL.
AFC EAST
1) Patriots 12-4
2) Jets 9-7
3) Bills 8-8
4) Dolphins 2-14
Miami is an absolute disaster. I mean 2-14 might even be a stretch. I fully expect them to be the worst team in the AFC if not the entire NFL, which is a little ironic because the Super Bowl will be played in their stadium this season. The Bills have a very good defense and young QB Josh Allen is showing signs of getting better and Buffalo upgraded its offensive line. This is a team that’s on the rise and could surprise some people this year. Miami’s old coach, Adam Gase, took his wild-eyed approach to New York and I would not be surprised to see the Jets in playoff contention. Gase has always worked well with quarterbacks and he has a really good young one in Sam Darnold. NY added Le’Veon Bell to the offense but the real intriguing part will be the defense, where coordinator Gregg Williams brings his attacking scheme over from Cleveland. The Jets drafted professional massive human Quinnen Williams on the defensive line and signed Mosley away from the Ravens. New York should be the most improved team in the NFL this year. But once again it’s the Patriots who will walk away with the division title. There’s simply nobody good enough to catch them and unless they suffer some kind of major injuries the Pats will be hosting games into January again.
NFC WEST
1) Rams 11-5
2) Seahawks 10-6*
3) 49ers 8-8
4) Cardinals 2-14
Nobody really knows what to realistically expect out of Kyler Murray this year. He could be a bust. He could be a revelation. We also aren’t sure what to make of Kliff Kingsbury. The rookie head coach had a losing record at Texas Tech despite having Patrick Mahomes as his QB for two and a half years. Kingsbury is either going to show he’s an offensive mastermind who can compete at any level … or he’s simply good coordinator material. The 49ers are getting better with John Lynch putting their roster together. I’m not worried about Jimmy Garoppolo’s awful preseason (yet). His regular season track record is too good to think he’s going to stink up the joint coming off a torn ACL. San Francisco is coming but they’re still on the outside of the playoff picture. Seattle is going to be a problem for a lot of teams. The Seahawks went to the playoffs a year ago and have significantly closed the gap on the Rams in the West. Head coach Pete Carroll seems to have rebuilt the defense to a post-season level, former Aztec Rashaad Penny should break out in his 2nd NFL season, and as long as you have Russell Wilson under center you have a chance to beat anyone. The biggest fears for the Rams are if Todd Gurley can get back to his MVP level and the hangover that seems to haunt teams that lose a close title game the year before. The Rams won’t be as dominant this year as they looked for most of last year but Aaron Donald, who is the best player at any position in the league, will be. Plus, the return of Cooper Kupp from an ACL tear will be massive for Jared Goff and the offense as L.A. wins a 3rd straight division title.
NFC SOUTH
1) Saints 12-4
2) Falcons 10-6
3) Panthers 9-7
4) Buccaneers 3-13
As much as I respect Bruce Arians he walked into a bad situation. Tampa Bay has a horrible defense and while the new head coach should be able to help Jameis Winston improve they don’t have a franchise QB on the roster. It’s going to be a long year on the Gulf coast. Carolina has done one of those weird odd year-even year things under Ron Rivera. In odd years they’ve won 12, 15 and 11 games. In even years they’ve won seven, six and seven games. They’re back to an odd year and they have a freakishly talented defensive line. But on offense the Panthers have Christian McCaffrey and not a lot else UNLESS Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are healthy. The issue is them being healthy. If they’re right this team has playoff aspirations. Atlanta was decimated by injuries last year. There’s no way one team can lose as many players as the Falcons did two years in a row. Simply having their guys on the field will put them in the playoff hunt and Matt Ryan could have a sneaky MVP-caliber season again. The Saints are the most complete team in the division and they know their window with Drew Brees is not going to stay open very long. The last two years New Orleans has had a pair of gut-wrenching playoff losses. First the Minnesota Miracle and then a missed pass interference call. I think the Saints are ticked off and motivated and that makes them extremely dangerous.
NFC NORTH
1) Vikings 11-5
2) Bears 10-6*
3) Packers 9-7
4) Lions 8-8
This, in my estimation, is the best division from top to bottom in the NFL right now. Detroit has put together a respectable defense under 2nd year head coach Matt Patricia but it’s the offense that will take a big step forward. Matt Stafford will have rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson and wideout Danny Amendola to throw to and 2nd year running back Kerryon Johnson could be the breakout offensive star of the year. The kid from Auburn could approach 1,800 yards from scrimmage. The rest of the division is separated by whiskers. Green Bay has been building its defense for a few years and those efforts should pay off. But Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem happy with how things have gone in the coaching staff or the offense. The Packers could win 12 games or eight games. I think they have a winning record but miss the playoffs. The Bears defense is amazing. In fact it might be even better this year than it was last year when it allowed the fewest points in the NFL. Chicago’s defense alone is good enough to put it in the playoff hunt. Mitch Trubisky is good enough to keep them in games and they really were a kicker away from winning a playoff game a year ago. But they’ll get a Wild Card spot because the Vikings also have a Top-5 defense and are simply more dynamic on offense than Chicago. Kirk Cousins will have more time to throw to Pro Bowlers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen behind a re-vamped offensive line that was abysmal a year ago. If they can keep Dalvin Cook healthy for a full season it’ll be gravy.
NFC EAST
1) Eagles 12-4
2) Cowboys 9-7
3) Giants 4-12
4) Redskins 4-12
Washington should be better than they are. The Redskins have arguably a Top-10 defense with a solid front seven and the addition of safety Landon Collins. But offensively they just can’t seem to figure anything out. Their offensive line is rubbish and they don’t have a legitimate deep threat on the outside. Jay Gruden might be the first head coach let go this year. The Giants are not much better. They could be worse. They have an average defense that’s capable of staying in games. But I fear for Saquon Barkley’s health. That kid is an incredible talent but he’s the only viable threat on that offense. Until Golden Tate’s 4-game suspension is up the Giants will not have a wideout on the field that I’ve ever heard of. The Cowboys are a sexy pick to go to the Super Bowl and talent-wise they have a championship caliber roster, even if Ezekiel Elliott does not return. They have a Top-10 offense and defense. But something, and I don’t know what it is, seems off to me. Distractions, guys wanting to get paid, Jason Garrett still not showing signs he can win anything that matters … whatever it is my gut is telling me Dallas is in for an underwhelming season. The Eagles have a chance to get back to and win another Super Bowl … say it with me now … as long as Carson Wentz stays healthy. The good news there is Philly’s offensive line is one of the best in the game so if head coach Doug Pederson can talk Wentz into not taking so many hits the Eagles have all the pieces you need to win. Top to bottom it’s one of the best rosters in the NFL and after last year’s late rally to get a Wild Card spot and win a playoff game Philly is on the short short list of title contenders.
AFC PLAYOFFS
Wild Card : Steelers over Ravens, Chargers over Texans
Divisional : Patriots over Chargers, Steelers over Chiefs
Championship : Patriots over Steelers
NFC PLAYOFFS
Wild Card : Vikings over Seahawks, Rams over Bears
Divisional : Saints over Rams, Eagles over Vikings
Championship : Saints over Eagles
SUPER BOWL LIV
Saints 33, Patriots 30
