When the NFL schedule comes out it’s a fun exercise to try and predict how every game will go. Forget about the fact it’s April and we haven’t had any free agent moves, trades or even the Draft. It’s hot take nation and we love to try and look like we were right eight months in advance!
So why not do the same thing with the Major League Baseball season?
The short answer there is “because it’s 162 games instead of 16, you idiot.” And I agree completely. But for you, the Friar Faithful, I am willing to put in the work!
So here is a prediction for every game of the 2020 San Diego Padres season. Some I will simply say W or L but a few times I’ll add an explanation of what happens and why it’s significant. Also their season record at that moment will be in parenthesis). So, without further ado, here is how your Padres will fare in their quest for the playoffs next year:
3/26 vs. COL : OPENING DAY! Chris Paddack gives up one run in 7.0 innings with 10 strikeouts and Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a leadoff home run in a 6-2 Padres win. (1-0)
3/27 vs. COL : In his Padres debut, free agent acquisition Madison Bumgarner makes a strong start and is backed by a Manny Machado grand slam as the Padres win 8-3. (2-0)
3/28 vs. COL : Cal Quantrill wins a pitcher’s duel, 2-1. (3-0)
3/29 vs. COL : Joey Lucchesi is OK but not great and the Rockies avoid a season-opening sweep with a 6-4 win. (3-1)
3/30 vs. ATL : Dinelson Lamet allows just two runs in 7.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and 10 walks and the Padres win 4-3. (4-1)
3/31 vs. ATL : Showing off their 6-man rotation, Garrett Richards is not terribly sharp and drops his first start as a San Diego Padre. (4-2)
4/1 vs. ATL : W (5-2)
4/3 at COL : The Rockies always play well against the Padres at Coors Field early in the year. Charlie Blackmon hits for the cycle because Charlie Blackmon. (5-3)
4/4 at COL : W (6-3)
4/5 at COL : L (6-4)
4/6 at ATL : Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna have a battle of the best young players in the game. Both hit three home runs and the Braves take the season’s first slugfest 12-10. (6-5)
4/7 at ATL : W (7-5)
4/8 at ATL : L (7-6)
4/10 vs. SF : In his first start against the only team he had ever played for, Bumgarner throws the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history in a 3-0 win. Padres Twitter is ripped down the middle as factions are formed. On one side are the “Thank Goodness It Finally Happened!” people. On the other are the “It Should Have Been A Real Padre That Did It So We Hate This!” people. This debate lasts a week and casualties are high. (8-6)
4/11 vs. SF : W (9-6)
4/12 vs. SF : Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer hit back-to-back home runs for a W and a sweep! (10-6)
4/14 vs. COL : Why 10 of their first 19 games are against the Rockies I have no idea but here we are. Rockies take game 1 behind a 6-HR game by Charlie Blackmon, the first 6-HR game in MLB history. Because Charlie Blackmon. (10-7)
4/15 vs. COL : W (11-7)
4/16 vs. COL : W (12-7)
4/18 at AZ : L (12-8)
4/19 at A : W (13-8)
4/21 at CHC : It’s still chilly at Wrigley Field and the wind is blowing straight in. The Padres, who have a much-improved bullpen, win 1-0 in 15 innings. (14-8)
4/22 at CHC : L (14-9)
4/23 at CHC : L (14-10)
4/24 at DET : It’s their first trip to Detroit since 2005. That year a rookie named Justin Verlander made his big league debut so yeah, it’s been a while. The Padres rebuild has them in playoff contention. The Tigers are just starting their rebuild. W (15-10)
4/25 at DET : W (16-10)
4/26 at DET : L (16-11)
4/27 vs. STL : L (16-12)
4/28 vs. STL : W (17-12)
4/29 vs. STL : W (18-12)
4/30 vs. STL : L (18-13)
5/1 vs. LAD : Here’s where things get seriously serious. The Dodgers are still the class of the division. They’re not going to give it up, the Friars are going to have to go and take it from them. The Padres need to make a statement (in a good way this time) and they pull it off. Hunter Renfroe hits two bombs and the Padres pound the boys in blue 10-4. (19-13)
5/2 vs. LAD : W (20-13)
5/3 vs. LAD : A sweep would be great but the Dodgers aren’t going to let that happen. L (20-14)
5/4 at STL : L (20-15)
5/5 at STL : W (21-15)
5/6 at STL : W (22-15)
5/8 at LAD : The Dodgers are looking for payback from the previous series. Reigning N.L. MVP Cody Bellinger goes nuts with four hits and L.A. takes game one of the series 9-3. (22-16)
5/9 at LAD : L (22-17)
5/10 at LAD : W (23-17)
5/11 vs. CWS : The week of deep dish pizza begins with three against the White Sox, who are also in rebuild mode but have some interesting young players like Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito. There will be quite a bit of young talent on the field. The Padres take game one of the series when Francisco Mejia doubles and homers to lead a 12-hit San Diego attack. (24-17)
5/12 vs. CWS : W (25-17)
5/13 vs. CWS : L (25-18)
5/14 vs. CHC : L (25-19)
5/15 vs. CHC : W (26-19)
5/16 vs. CHC : Former USD Torero Kris Bryant has a monster day with two homers and two doubles in a Cubs win. (26-20)
5/17 vs. CHC : W (27-20)
5/19 at MIA : The Marlins are again going to be one of the worst teams in baseball so this should be a series win for the Padres. Of course, we said that this year (twice) and it never happened. I’ll error on the side of caution here. L (27-21)
5/20 at MIA : L (27-22)
5/21 at MIA : Chris Paddack throws the 2nd no-hitter in Padres history in a 5-0 Padres win. The “It Should Have Been A Real Padre That Did It So We Hate This!” faction of Padres Twitter crafts a petition to re-visit Bumgarner’s no-no and turn an error on Hosmer into a hit so the record books forever reflect that Paddack is the first Friar to toss a no-hitter. (28-22)
5/22 at CIN : W (29-22)
5/23 at CIN : W (30-22)
5/24 at CIN : L (30-23)
5/25 at CIN : L (30-24)
5/26 vs. AZ : L (30-25)
5/27 vs. AZ : L (30-26)
5/28 vs. AZ : Things are going downhill fast. Every team hits the skids at some point during every season but the Padres are not playing well at all. A home sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks puts manager Andy Green squarely on the hot seat. Ron Fowler in a radio interview says he expects the team to be much better than this and if things do not get better fast there will be changes. (30-27)
5/29 vs. MIA : L (30-28)
5/30 vs. MIA : W (31-28)
5/31 vs. MIA : L (31-29)
6/1 at SF : Limping to the road after a 1-5 homestand the Padres get to San Francisco needing a badly. Since Bruce Bochy retired the Giants are a mess so Green gets a temporary reprieve. W (32-29)
6/2 at SF : W (33-29)
6/3 at SF : L (33-30)
6/4 at SF : L (33-31)
6/5 at AZ: L (33-32) The moment they get within a game of the .500 mark the Padres hit the eject button. Andy Green is let go and is replaced on an interim basis by bench coach Rod Barajas, who won three straight division titles as the skipper of the El Paso Chihuahuas.
6/6 at AZ : In their first game under Barajas the Padres put together a complete effort. They hit, they pitch, the play defense in a 12-1 blowout. (34-32)
6/7 at AZ : W (35-32)
6/9 at MIL : W (36-32)
6/10 at MIL : L (36-33)
6/11 at MIL : W (37-33)
6/12 vs. AZ : W (38-33)
6/13 vs. AZ : W (39-33)
6/14 vs. AZ : L (39-34)
6/16 vs. CIN : Richards goes on the injured list after pulling a hamstring trying to stretch a double into a triple. He’s replaced by top prospect MacKenzie Gore, who spins 6.0 shutout innings with eight strikeouts to win his Major League debut 4-0. Gore will not leave San Diego’s starting rotation for the next 11 years. (40-34)
6/17 vs. CIN : W (41-34)
6/18 vs. CIN : L (41-35)
6/19 at COL : W (42-35)
6/20 at COL : L (42-36)
6/21 at COL : W (43-36)
6/23 vs. CLE : Franmil Reyes receives a standing ovation in his return to Petco Park and La Mole hits the longest home run in the building’s history, a 510-foot blast. But it’s the only run Gore allows in a 3-1 Padres win. (44-36)
6/24 vs. CLE : L (44-37)
6/26 vs. NYM : Before the start of the series Noah Syndergaard is seen chatting with Padres General Manager A.J. Preller. Speculation that the Padres are still trying to trade for Thor skyrocket. The Friars fall to Marcus Stroman 2-1. (44-38)
6/27 vs. NYM : Syndergaard gets shelled, allowing six runs in two-plus innings. Luis Urias hits a 3-run homer to run his season average up to .315. Speculation that the Padres are still trying to trade for Syndergaard is silenced. Kirby Yates gets his 26th save of the year. (45-38)
6/28 vs. NYM : Pete Alonso, who was outwardly upset after losing the National League Rookie of the Year award to Fernando Tatis Jr., hits two home runs but Tatis goes 5-for-5 and cycles in a 9-7 Padres win. (46-38)
6/30 at PHI : W (47-38)
7/1 at PHI : L (47-39)
7/2 at PHI : W (48-39)
7/3 at NYM : W (49-39)
7/4 at NYM : L (49-40)
7/5 at NYM : W (50-40)
7/6 at NYM : L (50-41)
7/7 vs. LAD : The Padres start this series 5.0 games back of the Dodgers in the West but in possession of the 2nd N.L. Wild Card spot. Riding the momentum of their recent hot streak (17-9 since Barajas took over) the Friars show the Dodgers they’re going to be around for the entire season with a 4-2 win. Machado hits a 3-run walkoff HR off Kenley Jansen. (51-41)
7/8 vs. LAD : L (51-42)
7/9 vs. LAD : W (52-42)
7/10 at SF : W (53-42)
7/11 at SF : L (53-43)
7/12 at SF : W (54-43)
The Padres reach the All-Star break in control of the top N.L. Wild Card spot and 3.0 games behind the Dodgers in the West. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Kirby Yates, Chris Paddack and Hunter Renfroe are all named to the All-Star team.
7/17 vs. MIL : W (55-43)
7/18 vs. MIL : L (55-44)
7/19 vs. MIL : W (56-44)
7/21 at PIT : W (57-44)
7/22 at PIT : L (57-45)
7/23 at PIT : Pittsburgh starter and Grossmont H.S. alum Joe Musgrove takes a no-hitter into the 8th inning and settles for a shutout win. (57-46)
7/24 at KC : Eric Hosmer receives a standing ovation in his first game back in Kansas City. He is then booed after driving in six runs in a lopsided Padres win. (58-46)
7/25 at KC : L (58-47)
7/26 at KC : W (59-47)
7/27 vs. PIT : W (60-47)
7/28 vs. PIT : W (61-47)
7/29 vs. PIT : L (61-48)
7/30 vs. PHI : L (61-49)
7/31 vs. PHI : At the MLB trade deadline the Padres, sensing a need to shore up their bullpen, make a major move, sending three mid-level prospects to the A’s for closer Blake Treinen. He becomes the 8th inning option in front of Yates while flamethrowing Andres Munoz handles the 7th inning. That’s the formula they use to beat the Phillies 3-0. (62-49)
8/1 vs. PHI : W (63-49)
8/2 vs. PHI : L (63-50)
8/3 at LAD : L (63-51)
8/4 at LAD : L (63-52)
8/5 at LAD : W (64-52)
8/7 vs. COL : L (64-53)
8/8 vs. COL : W (65-53)
8/9 vs. COL : L (65-54)
8/11 at CLE : L (65-55)
8/12 at CLE : W (66-55)
8/13 at WAS : San Diego’s own Stephen Strasburg tosses a gem to beat his home town team 6-1. (65-56)
8/14 at WAS : Max Scherzer follows Strasburg’s great start with one of his own in a complete game 4-1 win. (66-57)
8/15 at WAS : Paddack provides a 3rd straight masterful performance but this time by a Padres starter in his first complete game since the no-hitter. (67-57)
8/16 at WAS : L (67-58)
8/18 vs. SF : W (68-58)
8/19 vs. SF : W (69-58)
8/21 vs. WAS : W (70-58)
8/22 vs. WAS : L (70-59)
8/23 vs. WAS : W (71-59)
8/24 at SF : L (71-60)
8/25 at SF : W (72-60)
8/26 at SF : L (72-61)
8/27 at LAD : This 4-game set is the series where the Padres will either be in contention for the division title or fall too far back. It does not get off to a great start as they run into Clayton Kershaw in a 3-2 loss. (72-62)
8/28 at LAD : W (73-62)
8/29 at LAD : L (73-63)
8/30 at LAD : The Dodgers win another close one when Corey Seager has three hits, the last one a walkoff HR to win 5-4. The Friars fall 6.0 games back of the Dodgers in the West so they’re not ready quite yet to challenge the Dodgers for the division. But they’re still 2.5 games up in the N.L. Wild Card race so that’s where their focus shifts. (73-64)
9/1 vs. SEA : The final month of the regular season starts with the first two games of the Vedder Cup. This is no contest since the Mariners are rubbish. (74-64)
9/2 vs. SEA : W (75-64)
9/3 vs. SF : W (76-64)
9/4 vs. SF : L (76-65)
9/5 vs. SF : L (76-66)
9/6 vs. SF : W (77-66)
9/7 vs. AZ : W (78-66)
9/8 vs. AZ : L (78-67)
9/9 vs. AZ : L (78-68)
9/10 vs. AZ : W (79-68)
9/11 at COL : The final series of the year against the Rockies officially knocks Colorado out of playoff contention. The Padres offense goes bonkers at Coors Field, scoring in double digits in every game. Of course, since it’s Denver, they only win two of those, starting with a 13-6 win. (80-68)
9/12 at COL : L (80-69)
9/13 at COL : W (81-69)
9/14 at SEA : The Padres secure the Vedder Cup with a win but, more importantly, they guarantee they will have a winning record for the first time in a decade when they best the Mariners 5-2. (82-69)
9/15 at SEA : L (82-70)
9/17 at AZ : L (82-71)
9/18 at AZ : W (83-71)
9/19 at AZ : L (83-72)
9/20 at AZ : W (84-72)
9/22 vs. MIN : L (84-73) HOWEVER a series of losses around the National League drop the Padres magic number for a Wild Card spot to 2.
9/23 vs. MIN : W (88-73) but everyone else wins to the magic number is dropped to 1.
9/24 vs. MIN : L (85-74) and the magic number stays at 1.
9/25 vs. LAD : The final series of the year starts with the Dodgers, who have already won the West, trying to set up their rotation for the post-season. That leaves the Padres open to win and clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2006. (86-74)
9/26 vs. LAD : L (86-75)
9/27 vs. LAD : The Padres finish the season like they started it, with a win. They will host the N.L. Wild Card game in front of the largest crowd in Petco Park history!
Final season record: (86-76)