MLB

Importance of Padres Game 2 Win Over Dodgers Cannot Be Overestimated

Evening series means Friars have a chance

In the standings it means the series is tied 1-1. In reality it means the series isn't over yet. Because had the Dodgers taken the first two games of the National League Division Series, there is about a 0.01% chance the Padres could have come back to win it.

That's not a knock of the Friars. That's just fact.

History says it's incredibly difficult to win a Division Series when you're down 0-2 no matter who you are or who you're playing. Since Major League Baseball adopted the format in 1995 it's only happened 10 times. Shoot, the last 25 times a team has fallen behind 0-2 in the World Series only three have come back to win and that's a best-of-seven format, a larger margin for error.

Then you have to consider the quality of the opponent. If the Padres had fallen down 0-2 they'd have to beat L.A. three straight times. Over a 162-game season the Dodgers only lost three straight games to the same opponent four times, and one of those occasions was the last series of the year against Colorado when they'd already locked up the best record in baseball and were in "just get through this without getting hurt" mode. Before that, it hadn't happened since June.

Oh, and there's also the recent history between these clubs that simply cannot be ignored. Over the last 10 years, the Padres have had at least a 3-game winning streak against the Dodgers exactly six times. The last time it happened was a sweep at Petco Park in late June of 2021. Since then San Diego hasn't even won two straight and is 6-24 against Los Angeles.

Have I made the point clearly enough yet? Losing Game 2 would have been a kill shot. Winning it, however, sends the series into a whole new direction.

The Dodgers have been better than the Padres in every conceivable way for a long time. But, in this series, they've both scored eight runs, both made one error, and the Dodgers have just one more hit. This is as close to equals as these clubs have been in a good while. Plus, all that happened at Chavez Ravine.

Now, the series shifts to Petco Park, where the Padres will have fans watching playoff baseball in person for the first time since 2006. The energy in that yard on Friday and Saturday night will be enough to power The Matrix for a year.

Belief is a big thing in baseball. For a long time the Padres have been trying to figure out how to beat the Dodgers. Game 2 gives them the belief that they have the tools to do it on the biggest of stages. The Friars, finally, won't be simply trying to survive against their longtime tormentors. They'll be going toe-to-toe against the trying to show all they've been building for the last seven years has, finally, started to pay off.

Now, I'm not saying that victory is going to propel the Padres to a series win. That is still an extremely tall order and the Friars remain major underdogs. All I'm saying is these few ... these happy few, this band of brothers, for he who takes the field with them shall be their brothers. And others around baseball shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their careers cheap wiles any speaks who fought with the Padres upon Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS.

LISTEN: With NBC 7 San Diego's Darnay Tripp and Derek Togerson behind the mic,Β On FriarΒ will cover all things San Diego Padres. Interviews, analysis, behind-the-scenes...the ups, downs, and everything in between. Tap here to find On Friar wherever you listen to podcasts.Β 

Contact Us