Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in the Padres lineup, and they can sure use an offensive catalyst. It’s easy to say a talent like that is important to a lineup. The eyeball test tells you that. There are very few players in the game who can change an entire lineup the way this guy can.
Pitchers have to be careful with him because of the power threat (a league-leading 42 home runs in 130 games in 2021) but if they put him on, he’s such a good baserunner that he distracts the guy on the mound, helping the guy at the plate see better pitches. That’s all part of the dynamics of the game.
The real question is, can we quantify his impact on the offense with hard data? This is baseball. Of course we can.
When Tatis Jr. plays well the Padres aren’t just better … they’re outright dangerous. Instead of assessing the Padres record when he’s in the lineup (OBVIOUSLY they’re more potent and successful with him than without him) let’s get a little more granular and look at their performance when he’s hitting. Over his first three seasons the Padres record when Tatis Jr. gets a base hit looks like this:
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2019 = 33-33
2020 = 29-14
2021 = 41-41
Their record when he plays and does NOT get a hit is not quite so rosy:
2019 = 6-12
2020 = 8-8
2021 = 18-30
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So, yeah, an All-Star and MVP finalist is going to help you win more games, something I didn’t have to write an entire story about to convince you of. That’s why we’re looking at this a little deeper, and the Padres need offense in a bad way right now. Tatis Jr.’s track record shows he is the straw that stirs the drink.
As a rookie in 2019 Tatis was hitting 6th for a quarter of the season so let’s start this analysis in 2020 when he established himself as one of the most dangerous offensive forces in the game.
Since the start of that shortened COVID season, when Fernando plays and gets a hit the Padres average 5.3 runs a game. If they were doing that this year, they’d be 2nd in the National League in scoring. When he plays and does not get a hit, they score 3.8 runs a game, which is about what they’re doing this year as they sit 13th in the N.L.
Over his career this dude has been worth a run and a half a game to his team when he’s impacting a game with his bat. THAT is why the Padres have been waiting on and missing him so much.
Now, I know, last year they went all the way to the NLCS without Tatis Jr. They averaged 4.3 runs a game for the year, thanks in large part to the season-long hot streak of MVP runner-up Manny Machado. Theoretically this year’s team should be even better with the addition of Xander Bogaerts and a full season of Juan Soto.
20 games in that’s not the case. History and math suggest the lineup gets better with Tatis Jr. in it. This year he’ll be hitting in the best lineup of his career. So, it stands to reason that if he hits the way he’s capable of hitting the Friars could score six or more runs a game.
Add that to the very good and very deep pitching staff that’s getting a boost of its own with the Saturday return of Joe Musgrove and, like I said, this team should become extremely dangerous.
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