In January, when NBC 7 spoke with University of San Diego economics professor, Alan Gin, he said the economy was headed in a dangerous direction.
“My prediction for 2023 was that we'd have a 70% chance of a recession,” Gin said. “It's not certain, but it's a strong possibility.”
By the National Bureau of Economic Research’s standards, the economy avoided a recession this year, but many markets still took a hit.
Costs of living in San Diego
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“The first place that an increase in interest rate is going to get ahead is the housing market,” Gin said.
San Diego County housing now costs 8.5% more than it did last November. Other essentials followed the same trend. Food, medical care and transportation costs are all up.
The county’s inflation rate was on the decline until September when it started to climb up again. Now, the inflation rate is 5.2%, which puts it at 2% higher than the national average.
Food prices rose 3.1%, energy prices rose 4.0%, which was largely due to an increase in the price of electricity in the San Diego area, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which takes information from the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
If you’re looking for a silver lining, you can check gas prices. Those are down more than 10% from one year ago.
NBC 7 checked back in with Gin in October, who by then had a much more positive prospect for 2024 and beyond.
“In 2024, as inflation cools off, it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to deal with inflation without it plunging the economy into a recession,” Gin said.
