San Diego County

3 Signs Inflation May Have Peaked and Prices Could Come Back Down

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Supply chain woes, surging gas prices and an increase in demand are a few reasons inflation is at a 40-year high, but there could be good news on the way.

Some financial market experts believe inflation could have peaked, or is close to peaking.

They're basing their assessments on these three signs: The price of used cars has gone down, the supply chain is rebounding and there's been a lack of so-called "sticky inflation."

One expert says the auto industry's rebound is a good sign because of how hard it was hit by the pandemic.

“When you think about it, there's a couple of canaries in the coal mine. I think one of the biggest ones is the auto industry, right? No industry has been hit harder than the auto industry with everything that's going on, from the shutdowns to supply chain issues. Used car prices have dropped significantly the last two months," LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said.

Used cars two months ago, like 45% year over year. So, we're starting to see some positive signs by the way used cars and trucks make up about 4% of overall CPI. That's the consumer inflation. So again, now we're seeing that roll over, that's a good sign. Overall inflation could be near a peak,” LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick said.

Detrick explains there are signs supply chain issues are sorting themselves out.

“Shipping rates, if you look at it from Shanghai to Rotterdam, L.A., New York, shipping rates are down over 30% from where they were last September,” Detrick said.

Lastly, the consumer price index shows promising signs as well.

“Just looking at the core CPI number that we saw recently, it was the lowest number month-over-month since last September,” Detrick said.

San Diegans say inflation slowing and prices coming down would be welcomed news.

“That would make my life easier. I would have few extra bucks in my pocket,” Nauta Hashimi said.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at their next meeting, which is meant to slow inflation.

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