Where COVID-19 Isn't in San Diego County

It's understandable that folks in Sorrento Valley, Cardiff, La Jolla, Carmel Valley, Solana Beach or Rancho Penasquitos might find it difficult to believe a second wave of the virus is gripping the state and on the verge of overwhelming area hospitals. Understandable because in these neighborhoods, that just isn't the case.

In San Diego County, the impact of the virus varies dramatically depending on your ZIP code. Population and case-rate data appear to show a tale of two counties. For example, about 30 miles separate Carmel Valley from San Ysidro, but in Carmel Valley, residents are nearly 60 times less likely to live next to someone who tested positive for COVID.

Ana Maria Ortega is one of the hundreds of thousands of San Diegans who found themselves unemployed during the pandemic. The San Ysidro mother feeds her family on canned food from a food bank. She says she's stressed, not scared. Stressed because she’s still paying rent and her credit card bills are piling up.

Those going through the same as Ortega know, she said -- and a lot of them know -- that San Ysidro is one of the areas worst hit by the virus.

NBC 7 Investigates analyzed county data and found that 9% of the people who live in the 92173 ZIP code, which is where San Ysidro is, have tested positive for COVID-19 -- nearly 1 in every 10 people.

Juan Reyes said that’s the fear -- that you go the store and get sick.

But if you don’t go out, there won’t be food for your family, said Jorge Real. It’s depressing to see so many people this poor, Real said.

Hugo Mendoza said he retired years ago but that, without insurance, he had to go back to work to pay medical bills. Mendoza said that if the nation doesn’t open its eyes to the suffering of the poor, everyone will suffer.

But right now, that suffering isn’t felt equally in San Diego County.

NBC 7 Investigates found Carmel Valley, La Jolla and University City, respectively, have the lowest COVID case rates.

Borrego Springs, Julian, Rancho Bernardo, Solana Beach, Rancho Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch and Cardiff round out the 10 areas in our county with the lowest COVID numbers. Every one of those neighborhoods had less than 1% of its population test positive.

“I was not surprised by the data showing that we are seeing less impact in more affluent neighborhoods,” said Kyra Greene, executive director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a San Diego nonprofit that works to close the income gap.

Greene said the ZIP codes with the highest number of cases are home to essential workers, many of them in the service sector.

“So many of the jobs in San Diego that are low-wage jobs are jobs that require folks to have face-to-face contact with the public,” Greene said.

The solution, according to Greene, is to raise low-income salaries and to provide stimulus relief to poor families.

“I have been so disappointed by the number of people who say you can’t pay people not to work," Greene said. "During a pandemic, sometimes the safest thing you can do is pay people not to work.”

For the critics, everything is easy, said Ortega. They don't have to go outside to search for food and work.

It's important to note that case numbers are reported based on where patients live, not where they contracted the virus. So it’s possible people who tested positive in San Ysidro got the virus anywhere in San Diego County – including those ZIP codes with the lowest rates.

Below is the list of ZIP codes alongside the latest case numbers, and case rates per each ZIP code's population (per 100,000 and 10,000 people) in descending order, from the highest case rate to the lowest.

ZIP Code	Population	Count	Rate Per 100k	Rate Per 10K
91917 & 91935	9418	880	9343.809726	934.3809726
92173	27097	2,445	9023.139093	902.3139093
92154	79996	4,463	5579.028951	557.9028951
92113	48550	2,554	5260.556128	526.0556128
91911	84819	3,930	4633.395819	463.3395819
91950	58536	2,515	4296.501298	429.6501298
92115	61463	2,520	4100.027659	410.0027659
92020	61895	2,280	3683.657808	368.3657808
92102	42330	1,559	3682.967163	368.2967163
91910	83834	3,075	3667.962879	366.7962879
92114	58032	2,121	3654.880066	365.4880066
91932	27448	979	3566.744389	356.6744389
91977	60994	2,119	3474.112208	347.4112208
92105	67078	2,294	3419.899222	341.9899222
92139	33271	1,132	3402.362418	340.2362418
91978	8119	264	3251.631974	325.1631974
92021	68655	2,175	3168.013983	316.8013983
91915	31119	974	3129.920627	312.9920627
92083	39155	1,182	3018.771549	301.8771549
91914	16781	506	3015.31494	301.531494
92019	45094	1,323	2933.871468	293.3871468
91905 & 91906 & 91934 & 91962 & 91963 & 91980	9648	282	2922.885572	292.2885572
91945	27208	786	2888.856219	288.8856219
91913	51077	1,416	2772.284981	277.2284981
92101 & 92134	61011	1,664	2727.37703	272.737703
92027	54203	1,477	2724.941424	272.4941424
91902	17631	480	2722.477454	272.2477454
92055 & 92672	41284	1,019	2468.268579	246.8268579
92025	51820	1,241	2394.828252	239.4828252
92003 & 92084	53644	1208	2251.882783	225.1882783
92109	54115	1,213	2241.522683	224.1522683
92069	51171	1,124	2196.556643	219.6556643
92058	24170	522	2159.70211	215.970211
92026	56272	1,155	2052.530566	205.2530566
92065 & 92070	37196	760	2043.230455	204.3230455
92059 & 92061 & 92082	21966	448	2039.515615	203.9515615
91901	17986	361	2007.116646	200.7116646
92057	55751	1,087	1949.740812	194.9740812
91941	34225	662	1934.258583	193.4258583
92108	27343	520	1901.766448	190.1766448
92104	52095	973	1867.741626	186.7741626
92110 & 92140	34177	630	1843.34494	184.334494
92056	55369	1,018	1838.573931	183.8573931
91942	40026	731	1826.312897	182.6312897
92103	39687	723	1821.755235	182.1755235
92111	47943	872	1818.826523	181.8826523
92028	49008	885	1805.82762	180.582762
92040	44105	770	1745.833806	174.5833806
92029	21201	364	1716.900146	171.6900146
92054	42441	728	1715.322448	171.5322448
92120 & 92182	31635	539	1703.809072	170.3809072
92071	58213	970	1666.29447	166.629447
92123	33644	541	1608.013316	160.8013316
92117	52123	823	1578.957466	157.8957466
92116	36945	565	1529.300311	152.9300311
92078 & 92096	51561	777	1506.95293	150.695293
92119	23730	311	1310.577328	131.0577328
92126 & 92145	77543	1005	1296.055092	129.6055092
92118 & 92135 & 92155	24199	308	1272.779867	127.2779867
92081	32891	416	1264.783679	126.4783679
92106	22209	279	1256.247467	125.6247467
92008	29653	364	1227.531784	122.7531784
92024	56389	692	1227.1897	122.71897
92107	30971	378	1220.496594	122.0496594
92037	43285	528	1219.822109	121.9822109
92064	50438	592	1173.718228	117.3718228
92124	31705	370	1167.008358	116.7008358
92067 & 92091	11917	131	1099.26995	109.926995
92010	16681	179	1073.077154	107.3077154
92009	43336	464	1070.703341	107.0703341
92014	14138	146	1032.677889	103.2677889
92128	51735	533	1030.250314	103.0250314
92011	23962	245	1022.452216	102.2452216
92136	12491	126	1008.726283	100.8726283
92007	11483	114	992.7719237	99.27719237
92131	36090	345	955.9434746	95.59434746
92129	52626	488	927.2982936	92.72982936
92075	12977	119	917.0070124	91.70070124
92127	49511	404	815.9802872	81.59802872
91916 & 91931 & 91948 & 92036 & 92259	7572	59	779.1864765	77.91864765
92004 & 92060 & 92066 & 92086 & 92536	8032	60	747.0119522	74.70119522
92122	48949	358	731.3734703	73.13734703
92093 & 92161	11300	35	309.7345133	30.97345133
92121 & 92130	64393	98	152.1904555	15.21904555