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S&P 500 Ends Monday Slightly Higher as Investors Anticipate Key Inflation Data: Live Updates

S&P 500 Ends Monday Slightly Higher as Investors Anticipate Key Inflation Data: Live Updates
CNBC

The S&P 500 ticked slightly higher Monday as investors looked ahead to key inflation data this week.

The broader index rose 0.1% to 4,109.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 101.23 points, or 0.3%, to 33,586.52. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite inched lower by 0.03% to close at 12,084.36.

Tech stocks struggled, with shares of Apple falling 1.6% and Google-parent Alphabet sliding 1.8%. Tesla shares fell 0.3% after the company said it will cut prices again on some electric vehicles. Meanwhile, shares of chipmakers rose after Samsung said it would cut production to support prices; Micron Technology shares gained 8%.

Investors are in for a busy week of economic data, including the latest consumer price and producer price index data for March – due out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively – which help determine if or when the Fed will pause or end its rate-hiking campaign.

"We're seeing what we believe is the same investor narrative, which is uncertainty around the mixed economic data, which is driving uncertainty around Fed policy and a greater concern — particularly with Friday's strong employment data — that the Fed may again move forward with another rate hike," AXS Investments' Greg Bassuk said. 

"Investors have greater concerns about a potential U.S. recession, and the markets seem to be under greater pressure as the Fed decision looms," he added. The next Federal Reserve meeting is set for May 2 and 3.

Investors are coming off a long holiday weekend and responding to the March jobs report that came out on Good Friday when the New York Stock Exchange was closed. The report showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, following some signs of weakening in the labor market earlier in the week.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, about in line with the Dow Jones estimate of 238,000, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold from the previous month at 3.6%.

Investors are also awaiting the first batch of companies reporting first-quarter financial results. Three of the largest banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, and the largest health-care company, UnitedHealth Group, are scheduled to report Friday.

Lea la cobertura del mercado de hoy en español aquí.

S&P 500 closes slightly higher

The S&P 500 ended Monday slightly higher as investors anticipated key inflation data this week.

The broader index rose 0.1% to 4,109.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 101.23 points, or 0.3%, to 33,586.52. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 0.03% to 12,084.36.

— Sarah Min

Schwab climbs after update on March asset flows

Shares of Charles Schwab rose 5% on Monday after a commentary note from its founder and CEO said the company had brought in $53 billion of core net new client assets in March.

The update said deposit flows "have remained fairly consistent" during the recent worries about regional banks and other parts of the banking system. Average daily outflows were actually down from February, the note said.

"While the first quarter was a challenging time, for sure, reflecting negative investor sentiment, ongoing interest rate hikes, and regional banking turmoil, Schwab's client-centric growth model remains firmly intact and is performing well," the note from founder Charles Schwab and CEO Walt Bettinger said.

— Jesse Pound

Corporate America could see another quarterly earnings miss, says LPL's chief equity strategist

A second straight quarterly miss could happen this earnings season as corporate America continues to face similar challenges from the fourth quarter, according to LPL Financial's chief equity strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. 

The firm noted persistent slow global economic growth, cost pressures from elevated inflation levels, effects of a stronger U.S. dollar last quarter compared to the quarter one year ago, as well as geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and China as factors that have put upward pressure on costs.

"Add bank stress that will weigh on financial sector profits and we have the makings of another year-over-year (YOY) earnings decline for the S&P 500 Index in the first quarter," Buchbinder wrote in a note to clients sent on Monday. "Any upside to the current consensus estimate for S&P 500 EPS at -6.2% YOY will be difficult to achieve."

Many S&P 500 companies provided more cautious forward guidance during the last earnings season, which resulted in an overall meager beat rate in earnings estimates. 

— Pia Singh

Best and worst performing stocks show economy is slowing down, Strategas says

"The equity market's leadership profile looks more consistent with an economic slowdown, as does the continued message from the bond market (i.e., the entire yield curve still trades south of Fed Funds)," Christopher Verrone, head of technical strategy and macro research at Strategas wrote on Monday.

Looking at the market's performance last Thursday, before a 3-day holiday break, Verrone saw 63 industrial stocks (including Caterpillar and Deere) and roughly 32 consumer discretionary stocks on a list of relative lows compared with the S&P 500. Industrials, in particular, have now "given back nearly 6 months of alpha in just a few weeks, again emphasizing the very split nature of the tape, he wrote.

Unlike in February, the latest rally in the S&P 500 is being led by more defensive stocks, not the riskiest — emblematic of slower economic growth, Verrone said. He looked at the relationship between consumer discretionary and consumer staples stocks, transportation and utility issues, smallcaps and large caps, copper and gold prices, and high volatility vs low volatility companies, all of which "are meaningfully softer today compared to earlier this year."

Among the few bullish straws in the wind (from a contrarian point of view) is that institutional investors' positioning in stocks is "very light," as reflected in the largest net short position in S&P 500 index futures since 2011, he said.

— Scott Schnipper

Why Wall Street views Samsung's production cuts as a positive tailwind for the sector

Samsung's move to cut memory chip production could fuel a sooner-than-expected recovery for the broader memory chip market, according to Wall Street.

Along with preliminary results pointing to a 96% drop in quarterly profit, the company said Friday it plans to cut production of two types of memory as it deals with a supply and demand mismatch.

Investors viewed the move as a potential positive for competitors, sending shares of Micron Technology and Western Digital up more than 8%. Citi analyst Christopher Danely called the news a "huge positive" for the dynamic random access memory industry.

Read more on why many on Wall Street are praising the move here.

— Samantha Subin

Stocks pull off worst levels during afternoon trading

Stocks came off their worst levels during afternoon trading. As of 2:13 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 46 points, or by 0.14%. The S&P 500 was lower by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28%.

At their lows of the session, the Dow was down as much as 141.86 points, or 0.42%. The S&P 500 declined by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.35%.

— Sarah Min

BlackRock's Rick Rieder calls jobs report another confirmation of slowing economy

Rick Rieder, BlackRock's CIO of global fixed income, said Friday's jobs report marked another data point that highlighted tangible slowing in the U.S. economy

"This was another confirmation of employee demand having crested and it is likely now on the downswing from here," Rieder said. The payroll report illustrated "a labor market that is clearly decelerating after a remarkably strong stretch of growth," he added.

— Yun Li

Market is absorbing overbought conditions, chart analyst says

"Last week was a digestion week for the major indices as they absorbed short-term overbought conditions," wrote Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. "Short-term overbought downturns are widespread ... which is the primary reason we expect a pullback as earnings season kicks off."

The technical strategist also pointed out, however, that the Nasdaq-100 index "managed to confirm its breakout above a Fibonacci retracement level [last week], putting next and more important resistance at the weekly cloud near 13,600."

To be sure, she noted that, "before this level becomes relevant, our short-term gauges indicate a pullback with strong support near 12,000."

— Fred Imbert

Stocks making the biggest moves in midday trading

These stocks are among those making the biggest moves in midday trading:

  • Pioneer Natural Resources – Shares of the fracking giant popped nearly 6% after The Wall Street Journal reported that Exxon Mobil has held informal talks to acquire Pioneer. Exxon shares fell 0.6%.
  • Micron Technology — Micron Technology's shares gained 8% after its rival Samsung Electronics announced that it plans to cut memory chip production in the near term. Many Wall Street analysts said the move could accelerate a return to supply-demand balance and potential rebound in the chipmaking sector. Chip giant Western Digital also added about 8%.
  • Excelerate Energy, EQT and other gas stocks — Shares of Excelerate Energy, EQT and other gas stocks ticked higher as natural gas futures climbed. Excelerate added more than 1%, while EQT jumped 3.7% and Matador Resources gained 2.9%. Excelerate also got a boost from a new Deutsche Bank report, wherein the firm initiated coverage of the stock, rated it a buy and said it was trading below its industry peers.

Click here to see more stocks making midday moves.

— Pia Singh

Movie theater stocks jump after success of Super Mario Bros. movie

Movie theater chains AMC Entertainment Holdings, Cinemark Holdings and IMAX shares jumped during midday trading on Monday following the successful opening of the "The Super Mario Bros. Movie."

Since its release on April 5, the movie has grossed more than $204 million in the U.S., according to data from Box Office Mojo. The film is distributed by Universal Pictures.

AMC shares advanced more than 6%, while Cinemark shares gained more than 5%. IMAX shares added 1.9%.

Disclaimer: Universal Pictures and CNBC are both owned by NBCUniversal.

— Sarah Min

Five Below could get boosted by success of Super Mario Bros. movie, Roth MKM says

Discount-retailer Five Below may be helped by the success of "The Super Mario Bros. Movie," according to Roth MKM.

He said shares are trading up after the movie, which was made by Universal Pictures, posted stronger-than-anticipated box office results with five-day domestic revenue above $200 million. Bellinger also noted several key Mario-themed products were sold out online, while in-store products within the brand were priced on the higher end of the store's spectrum.

"Our recent in-store and online checks indicate Five Below (FIVE) may be seeing a modest, late Q1 surge from Super Mario Brothers-related product," executive director David Bellinger said in a note to clients Monday. He has a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $240.00, which implies an upside of 15.9% over where the stock ended last week.

Bellinger said the company has historically performed well when there's new intellectual property aimed at younger audiences, pointing to the release of Disney's "Frozen." He said the excitement for Mario Bros. products could help amid concerns of consumer slowdowns in March and April.

Shares traded up 4% in Monday's session, notching a high not seen since 2021. The stock has gained 21% since the start of 2023.

Disclaimer: Universal Pictures and CNBC are both owned by NBCUniversal.

— Alex Harring

The week after Easter has historically been good for the S&P 500, data shows

There's a lot for investors to watch this week with the latest economic data and start of earnings season. But if history repeats itself, this week should be good for the S&P 500.

Between 1945 and 2022, the broad index has advanced 0.54% in the median post-Easter trading week, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That's better than the median 0.29% gain seen in any week over that period.

And the S&P 500 usually has an even better post-Easter week in years like this one where the index is up year-to-date. Of the 48 years when the S&P 500 was up heading into the week, the index posted a mean gain of 0.67%.

The index has ended nearly three out of five post-Easter trading weeks within the time period trading up, Bespoke data shows. The index is more likely to end the post-Easter week positive if it was up since the start of the year.

But that doesn't mean investors are in for a smooth ride. The S&P 500 has slid an average of 0.18% in the next trading session after Easter since 1980, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. But the session following that one has been historically positive.

— Alex Harring

Energy stocks outperform

Energy stocks outperformed in the S&P 500 during midday trading, with the sector up 1%. Around 11 a.m. ET, it was just one of three sectors trading in positive territory.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company jumped 6.6% following a Wall Street Journal report that said Exxon Mobil held informal talks to acquire Pioneer. Exxon Mobil shares rose 0.2%.

EQT Corporation shares advanced 3.6%, while Coterra Energy shares added 2.6%. Halliburton shares rose 2.4%.

— Sarah Min

Hedge funds selling tech stocks for 3 weeks in a row

Hedge funds sold out of technology stocks for a third straight week last week, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1% last week, suffering its first down week in four.

The tech sector saw the largest weekly notional net selling since December 2022, driven by long sales, Goldman data said. The selling in semiconductors was the most prominent, the data said.

— Yun Li

February wholesale inventories rise 0.1%, lower than expected

Wholesale inventories in February rose 0.1%, which was a smaller-than-expected increase than the 0.2% consensus estimate, according to Dow Jones. That's compared from a fall of 0.4% in the previous reading.

— Sarah Min

Cloud stock ETF falls nearly 1.5%

The Global X Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU) slid almost 1.5% in Monday's session.

2U led the fund down with a drop of more than 5%. Kingsoft, Twilio and Zoom Video were also among the worst performers, with each slipping around 3%.

Monday's dip puts the fund on pace for its fourth negative session out of the last five.

— Alex Harring, Gina Francolla

Overlooked UnitedHealth may have outsized market impact when it reports earnings Friday

The week's earnings focus may justifiably focus on what used to be called the money center banks —JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup all report Friday, (as does BlackRock, by the way) — but that attention downplays the importance of UnitedHealth's earnings, also due to be reported Friday.

After all, analysts estimate that UNH's 2023 revenues will top the combined revenue of all three of those banks. Also bear in mind:

  • UNH's market value ($478b) is >$100 billion bigger than JPM's ($375b)
  • UNH is the largest stock in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average ($512.81 at last Thursday's close), while JPM is 20th ($127.47)
  • UNH is the 10th largest company in the S&P 500 (1.4% of the index), which is weighted by market capitalization, and its importance to the benchmark is about 30% greater than JPM's (1.09% of the index)
  • By sector, health care accounts for 14.2% of the S&P against financials 12.9%

How important is UnitedHealth?

It's the biggest Medicare Advantage insurer — the fastest-growing and most profitable line of health plans right now. If UNH's Optum services division were a standalone business, it would be the fifth largest health care company in the U.S. by revenue (estimate $214.5b in 2023).

— Bertha Coombs, Scott Schnipper

 

Stocks fall to start the week

The Dow dropped more than 100 points after the open, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back by 0.7% and 1%, respectively.

— Fred Imbert

Consumers are feeling the pressure on multiple fronts, but Dana Telsey still sees a case for a 'soft landing'

Telsey Advisory Group founder and CEO Dana Telsey said she anticipates retailers will report choppiness in consumer behavior over the first quarter, but she still anticipates a soft landing is possible for the economy.

"We are beginning to see people trade down," Telsey said. She explained that high-end consumers are worried by factors like the banking crisis, while low-end consumers have been hit by a number of developments that have curtailed their spending. These include lower tax refunds and the expiration pandemic support programs such as enhanced SNAP benefits and the student loan payment freeze.

Earlier Monday, Telsey put out a report that said the average tax refund is down 9.8% year over year, according to Internal Revenue Service data as of March 31. But the decline is greater still when you factor in the reduction in the Child Tax Credit and Child and Dependent Care Credit.

Lower-income consumers are shopping stores like Dollar General more frequently and buying fewer items per trip. They've also started spending their savings or are running up debt from credit cards or even borrowing from friends, the report said.

Middle- and higher-income consumers are being more mindful of spending, it added.

Telsey said she's fans of Costco, Walmart, Dollar General and the off-price retailers in this environment as they are "places people can find a value and also offer convenience."

—Christina Cheddar Berk

Tech stocks underperform in the premarket

Tech stocks lagged in the premarket, with shares of Apple falling 1.3% and Google-parent Alphabet sliding 1%. Amazon shares dropped about 0.9%, and Microsoft shares shed 0.7%.

— Sarah Min

Tesla shares fall

Tesla shares fell nearly 3% before the bell after the company announced another round of price cuts on some vehicles in an attempt to spur demand.

The electric vehicle maker also confirmed plans to build a megapack battery factory in Shanghai capable of assembling 10,000 giant batteries annually.

Elsewhere, data out of China showed a slowdown in auto sales growth in March.

— Samantha Subin

First Republic suspends preferred share dividend

First Republic announced in a filing on Friday that it is suspending dividends for its preferred stock "as a measure of prudent oversight."

The regional bank had already suspended its common stock dividend last month, as a massive outflow of deposits raised concerns about First Republic's cash position. The bank also announced that it will report its fourth-quarter results on April 24.

Shares of First Republic were down 4% in premarket trading.

— Jesse Pound

Bank deposits and emergency borrowing stabilizes following crisis

The drain on U.S. bank deposits has slowed following an industry crisis last month, according to recent Federal Reserve data.

For all banks, deposits fell by a seasonally adjusted $64.7 billion, or 0.37%, for the period ending March 29, the Fed reported Friday. That compared to a decline of $172.1 billion, or nearly 1%, for the previous week. Domestically chartered large banks saw outflows of nearly $40 billion while small banks were little changed.

On non-seasonally adjusted basis, deposits actually increased by $42.3 billion.

The usage of Fed emergency lending programs instituted at the same time that Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank fell also was stable.

Discount window borrowing averaged just over $71 billion for the week ended April 5, down from $104.9 billion the previous week. Bank Term Funding Program borrowing averaged $68.2 billion, up from $62.6 billion.

Bank stocks pointed lower Monday morning, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF off 0.6% in premarket trading and the SPDR Bank ETF down fractionally.

—Jeff Cox

Apple shares decline after IDC report

Apple shares slid 1.3% in premarket trading on Monday after International Data Corporation reported that global shipments of traditional PCs fell nearly 30% year over year in the first quarter, while Mac sales dropped 40% over the same time period. IDC cited poor demand, excess inventory and deteriorating macroeconomic environment.

"Though channel inventory has depleted in the last few months, it's still well above the healthy four to six week range," Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, said in a Sunday release. "Even with heavy discounting, channels and PC makers can expect elevated inventory to persist into the middle of the year and potentially into the third quarter."

— Sarah Min

Micron, Tesla among stocks moving before the bell

These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves before the bell:

Micron Technology – Shares jumped more than 6% following news that Samsung Electronics plans to cut memory chip production near term. Many Wall Street analysts said the move could accelerate a recovery within the memory chip industry.

Pioneer Natural Resources – The stock popped 7% before the bell after the Wall Street Journal reported that Exxon Mobil has held informal talks to acquire Pioneer. Exxon shares fell 0.6%.

Tesla – The electric vehicle stock fell nearly 2% before the bell. Tesla said it plans to build a "megapack" battery factory in Shanghai and cut some vehicle prices again.

Read the full list of stocks moving in the premarket here.

— Samantha Subin

KBW downgrades Block

KBW analyst Steven Kwok downgraded Block to market perform from outperform, citing pressure from small risks that are piling up.

"We think SQ's risk/reward profile has become less attractive as multiple risks are starting to add up," he wrote. "The big items revolve around rising competition within acquiring, and potential for regulatory scrutiny within its Cash App segment."

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Brian Evans

Investors gearing up for earnings season, Vital Knowledge says

Wall Street is preparing for a big earnings season, as Delta Air Lines and major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are set to report this week.

"Many are now gearing up to hear from Corporate America over the coming weeks to receive granular details into the state of the economy," wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.

Crisafulli he also said that, while worries of a "hard landing" have calmed slightly, "market participants are far from relieved."

"Before Q1 earnings, the Mar CPI arrives on Wed, and the reading is expected to be very mixed, with a huge drop in headline inflation but a small uptick in the core number," he said.

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

CNBC Pro: This hedge fund beat both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Here's what its manager is buying — and avoiding

Hedge fund manager David Neuhauser's fund has beaten both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average so far this year.

He shared with CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Thursday some tips on what to buy and avoid in today's volatile market, including three stocks that drove his fund's outperformance.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

CNBC Pro: Sell these 6 mining stocks and load up on these 8 energy ones instead, UBS says

Sell mining shares and invest in energy stocks instead — that's the message from the Swiss investment bank UBS.

On the one hand, the bank believes that "unsynchronized" global growth and recessionary concerns in the U.S. make it difficult for mining companies to perform well. On the other hand, UBS expects energy stocks to continue delivering bumper cash flow this year, according to UBS.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Stock futures rise slightly Sunday evening

Futures tied to the major averages opened slightly higher Sunday evening.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 52 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered above the flat line at 0.02%.

On Thursday, the major averages rose to end a holiday-shortened trading week. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted weekly losses, while the Dow notched a weekly gain.

The S&P 500 lost 0.1% on the week, its first losing week in four, finishing at 4,105.02. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.1% over the course of the week to 12,087.96. The 30-stock Dow posted a weekly gain of 0.6% to close out at 33,485.29.

— Tanaya Macheel

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