• Zuma was found guilty by the Constitutional Court on June 29 after failing to appear at a corruption inquiry centered on his time in power between 2009 and 2018.
• The 79-year-old reportedly said on Sunday that the sentence, given his advanced age and the ongoing Covid pandemic, was equivalent to "sentencing (him) to death," as he adopted a defiant posture at his Nkandla residence in KwaZulu-Natal.
• Neither of the former president's legal challenges are likely to succeed, according to NKC African Economics senior political analyst Louw Nel, who said they at best have an outside chance of delaying his incarceration.

Former South African President Jacob Zuma refused to surrender himself to police by Sunday after the country's highest court sentenced him to 15 months imprisonment for contempt.

Zuma was found guilty by the Constitutional Court on June 29 after failing to appear at a corruption inquiry centered on his time in power between 2009 and 2018.

But instead of presenting himself for arrest, the former president has launched two separate court bids in an effort to avoid a jail term. The 79-year-old reportedly said on Sunday that the sentence, given his advanced age and the ongoing Covid pandemic, was equivalent to "sentencing (him) to death," as he adopted a defiant posture at his Nkandla residence in KwaZulu-Natal.

His supporters gathered in the hundreds outside his home and vowed to shield Zuma from arrest, with the South African Police Service having now been given until Wednesday to take him into custody.

One challenge has been filed with the Constitutional Court itself and the other with the Pietermaritzburg High Court, the latter of which will be heard on Tuesday while the former will be heard on July 12.

However, the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture — or Zondo Commission — has opposed both requests for a delay in carrying out the orders. It said Tuesday's request should not be granted on the grounds that the Pietermaritzburg High Court lacks the jurisdiction to entertain it, and argued that Zuma's concerns about his age, health and prison conditions are matters to be raised with the correctional facilities, rather than the Constitutional Court.

Neither of the former president's legal challenges are likely to succeed, according to NKC African Economics senior political analyst Louw Nel, who said they at best have an outside chance of delaying his incarceration.

"His Constitutional Court bid is not aided by the fact that Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo has taken over as acting Chief Justice from Sisi Khampepe who wrote and delivered the majority judgement on June 29," Nel said.

"One of Mr Zuma's main arguments in his refusal to testify before the Zondo Commission was the chairperson's alleged conflict of interest, something which Mr Zondo rejected."

The worst of the "bad options," Nel said, would be for Zuma to rally his supporters into a confrontation with the SAPS when officers arrive to arrest him on Wednesday, which Police Minister Bheki Cele has committed to doing pending any surprises in court proceedings.

"This is a potentially volatile scenario which authorities, and the ANC, will want to avoid at all costs. However, even an ugly confrontation at Nkandla will not necessarily destabilise the country, as Mr Zuma's support is robust but marginal," he said.

"His self-assigned victimhood is playing well with his supporters, but sympathy is not widely shared."

While the standoff has resurfaced long-standing divisions between Zuma's remaining loyalists in the ruling African National Congress and the project of his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, these are similarly unlikely to cause an irreconcilable break in the party, he added.