Warning – Boring Scripps Ranch Sales Charts Ahead

We aren’t quite to the end of the year, but we can see 2009 from here, so I thought it might be time to reassess where we have been and where we might be going.

The single, most frequently asked question we field concerns when we will see prices bottoming out and when we might get there. Until I can see a reversal in our current trend lines, I can’t say with any confidence that we are there yet.

I put together the following charts using information from the Sandicor Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The charts show annual median sales prices and sales volume over a ten-year period. Again, the data for 2008 is incomplete, but we are close enough.

My executive summary is this. Condos and single-family detached homes are following the same trend in our community, nearly mirror images. I was hoping to see some evidence from the condo activity that we are turning a corner (clinging to the old adage that so go the condos goes the market), but that wasn’t the case. Detached prices are back to early 2003 levels, while condos are back to late 2002/early 2003 pricing. Since the peak year of 2005, detached Scripps Ranch homes have given up approximately 20% of their value and attached homes approximately 25%.

With that, buckle your seat belts:

I will update these charts in January, when 2008 is but a memory and our final numbers are in. In the meantime, it is important to remember that we have some interesting dynamics at play, any or all of which could impact our housing market (or not). Among these are:

A new Presidential administration

Continuing Fed efforts to stop the bleeding

An increased willingness within the lending community to restructure loans for troubled homeowners

? Wall street, jobs numbers and overall consumer sentiment

Lower thresholds for non-conforming (Jumbo) loans

Latent buyer demand

? Interest rates


So there you have it. We wait, we watch, but we do know that since 2003 at least, there has never been a better time to buy!!


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