In the second half of the Chargers’ 33-28 win over the Lions a week ago quarterback Philip Rivers completed 20 straight passes. That’s astonishing. It’s also quite possibly a guarantee the Chargers are going to make the playoffs this season. Let me tell you why.
On Sunday Rivers flew right by the San Diego franchise record of 16 he set in October of 2013. You may recall the Bolts last made the playoffs in 2013. The record before that was 15 straight completions, set by Rivers in 2007 and Dan Fouts in 1981. You may also recall the Chargers reaching the post-season in both 2007 and 1981.
Wait, it gets better. In each of those seasons the Chargers did not just make it to the playoffs, they won at least one playoff game. In ’07 and ’81 they reached the AFC Championship Game. For some strange reason when the Chargers have a quarterback that goes on some crazy completion streak they make a playoff run. But the stretch Rivers is on could be historic for another reason.
If Philip hits on his first five passes on Sunday in Cincinnati he’ll break the NFL record of 24 consecutive completed passes set by Donovan McNabb in 2004. In case you were wondering, yes the Eagles went to the Super Bowl that year (does anybody else see a pattern forming here?).
During the current streak Rivers has completed passes to six different players:
Keenan Allen – 9 catches
Stevie Johnson – 4 catches
Ladarius Green – 3 catches
Danny Woodhead – 2 catches
Melvin Gordon – 1 catch
Branden Oliver – 1 catch
Those 20 receptions covered 229 yards and resulted in two touchdowns. It’s made even more remarkable when you realize Philip is doing it without a completion to Malcom Floyd and without Antonio Gates even in the building. So naturally one of our three players to watch this week against the Bengals is a guy who catches the football for a living:
Stevie Johnson, WR
All eyes in Cincy will be on Allen, and rightfully so. Keenan was a monster in the Lions game and proved his maturity by telling his younger teammates to forget about the win and get ready to work at practice. That likely would not have been the case in his first two years in the league and is a testament to his dedication to the football craft. He’ll likely get a heaping helping of Adam Jones, still one of the toughest cover corners in the league, and Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis will likely be shading a safety to his side to help. That will most likely leave Stevie Johnson in the slot against Vista native Leon Hall with only linebacker help. Although Allen will also see his fair share of snaps in the slot Johnson is a maestro at getting himself open at the line. Hall, in his 9th year, is not the same player he once was. Johnson should be able to get himself open often. The question is: Will Rivers have enough time to find him? In a near-perfect segue that brings us to player number two.
Chris Hairston, OG
I’m basing this off what the Chargers did most of the week in practice. D.J. Fluker will not play with an ankle injury so they moved Hairston in to play guard from his natural tackle spot. If Hairston is in the lineup at guard it will be the first time he’s started an NFL game there. Hairston, who was drafted by the Bills in the 4th round in 2011, has made 15 starts at left or right tackle. The man who awaits him is a big, big problem. Geno Atkins is your classic game wrecker. In 2011-12 he was the best defensive tackle in football not named Ndamukong Suh (and might be the lone man who can claim he was Suh’s equal). Atkins suffered a serious knee injury in 2013 and was not himself last season but through training camp and the first week against Oakland, Atkins looks like his old self. Some of the best guards in the NFL have had issues with Atkins. If Hairston can’t handle him then Rivers will spend more time on his back than trying to extend his completions streak. If the Hairston scenario does not work out the other possibility for the Chargers is to move Chris Watt from to guard and start Trevor Robinson at center against his former team.
Manti Te’o, ILB
On the opening drive of the 2015 season the Detroit offense marched 80 yards for a touchdown against the Chargers defense. The final play was an electrifying 24-yard TD run by rookie Ameer Abdullah. Most people remember the way Abdullah made veteran safety Eric Weddle look silly 1-on-1 (just like 98% of the players in the league would have when a guy with moves like that gets loose). What most people do not remember is the way Manti Te’o chose the wrong place to attack, over-ran the play and gave Abdullah a lane the size of the Mariana Trench to run through. The Lions had a pretty good pair of backs in Abdullah and Joique Bell. The Bengals have a fantastic pair of backs in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. While Bernard might be more dangerous in the passing game Hill is a 235-pound slasher who quickly figured out the NFL game. Over the last nine games of his rookie year Hill averaged more yards per game than any other back in the NFL. He only ran for 63 yards but scored a pair of touchdowns in the season-opener against the Raiders. Both came out of power sets. If Te’o doesn’t get to the right spot and stop Hill before he gets going, the Bengals will be able to control the football and the game.
Derek’s Prediction
The last time the Bengals lost a home game in September was in 2011. This team is simply very good at Paul Brown Stadium, especially early in the season, and you have to figure the emotion of the home opener will be a plus. Over the last two years Cincinnati is 13-3-1 at home.
However, one of those losses was in the playoffs to the San Diego Chargers. Although Rivers says there are too many new players on both teams to draw much from that game (other than good memories) the similarities are there. Cincy was 8-0 at home that season before losing to the Bolts. On paper the stats tell me to take the Bengals. My head tells me to take the Bengals. Let’s break it down by who has the edge in each area:
Defensive Front Seven: CIN
Secondary: SD
Running backs: CIN
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: SD
Offensive Line: CIN
Special Teams: tie (I know Adam Jones has been a good punt returner but he hasn’t housed one or had a return longer than 47 yards since 2012)
Coaching: tie (Marvin Lewis and Mike McCoy are 1-1 against each other)
So the scorecard looks like Cincinnati is in the lead 3-2-2. But then you have the quarterbacks. I am not one of those who thinks Andy Dalton is a terrible QB. I think he’s vastly underrated and takes a lot of unnecessary grief based on some fantastic post-season flameouts. The guy is 18 games over .500 as a starter. However, he is not Philip Rivers. Very few are Philip Rivers, and he’s only going to get better this season.
The QB discrepancy tips the scales, just slightly, to the West Coast.
Final score: Chargers 27, Bengals 26
