NBC 7's Derek Togerson looks at a potentially huge trade by the Padres in this commentary
Padres General Manager AJ Preller is always looking to try and do things he thinks will improve the organization. He’s not necessarily looking to improve the current big league club; he has eyes on the entire franchise, from top to bottom.
So when we see published reports that Preller is in serious trade talks to deal one of his best pitchers it might not be in the best interest of the 2016 Padres but could be the best course of action in the grand scheme.
Preller is reportedly having heated discussions with the White Sox to send starting pitcher James Shields to Chicago (and apparently other teams have started working the phone with AJ as well). The Sox are in contention in the American League Central and could really use another reliable arm in the rotation, and that is exactly what Shields is.
Shields has gone at least 6.0 innings in every start this year and is in the midst of a fantastic May. In five starts this month James has pitched to a 2.56 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 10 walks. Those are certainly the kinds of numbers that fit well in the middle of a big league rotation. The problem for the Padres is those other kinds of numbers.
Shields is making $21 million a year through 2018 and the Friars would love to free up some payroll. In fact, that would likely be the most appealing part of the trade, even more than any prospects the Friars would get in return.
The Padres would likely have to send a little cash to Chicago or any other team that makes a deal for Shields having his contract off the books would be worth it if for no other reason than it will help ease any fear about spending big this summer on young players, both in the draft and international market.
San Diego is one of a handful of teams expected to spend well beyond their allotted international bonus pool when the signing period opens in July and reportedly has commitments from three of this year’s top 10 players, all of them commanding seven figure bonuses. Preller’s history shows he’s a wizard with scouting international players, especially from Latin America, so a spending spree in the Dominican Republic and Cuba makes a lot of sense.
Although the Ron Fowler-led ownership group has said time and again the Padres are no longer hesitant to spend money the financial reality of baseball still puts them in the category of "small market team" so if they're going to go after a fresh crop of players having one less monster contract on the books makes the effort a lot more palatable.
As for who will take over the spot in the rotation, there are a few candidates. Colin Rea will be available for a recall soon, veteran Jeremy Guthrie has made 10 starts for Triple-A El Paso, and former reliever Frank Garces was recently moved in to the starting rotation with the Chihuahuas to start stretching him out.
Of course that would give the Padres a starting rotation of Andrew Cashner, Drew Pomeranz, Cesar Vargas, Christian Friedrich, and one of the above-mentioned men, which is not exactly how they drew it up at the start of Spring Training.
While moving Shields might look like the start of a fire sale (and Padres fans are rightfully a bit sensitive to that kind of thing), in this situation it’s probably the right thing to do.
