We have reached that time of the year again. The Major League Baseball trade deadline is not until July 31 but it’s right about now when teams start seriously talking about making a deal.
Most organizations know at this point whether or not they are true contenders and if so what they need to either stay in the pennant race or separate themselves from the pack. The Padres are not in that boat so they figure to be open for business.
But who is most likely to be dealt? Let’s look at the roster and take an educated guess on who the Friars are definitely going to keep and who is probably headed out of town. For this we’re going with only the guys on the active roster, PLUS a couple of pitchers who, if they come off the disabled list soon, might be trade bait.
Brad Hand, Relief Pitcher
Despite his rough outing in Arizona (and what pitcher has NOT had a rough outing against the Diamondbacks in that ballpark this year) Hand has turned in to one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball. He has the ability to work anywhere from the 4th inning to the 9th inning and could probably even get you a spot start if absolutely necessary. Now that he’s perfected the slider he’s a strikeout machine, whiffing 43 hitters in 33.0 innings this year. Other teams are going to want the 27-year-old for his effectiveness and his contract situation. Hand is not eligible for free agency until 2020, making him infinitely attractive to contenders. However, that also makes him attractive to the Padres so if he moves it will have to be at a huge asking price. My guess is somebody like the Nationals, who are in dire need of bullpen help, will ante up to pry Hand out of San Diego (but no, Trea Turner and Joe Ross are not coming back so don’t even ask).
Trade Probability: 90%
Yangervis Solarte, Infielder
This one would hurt a lot. Solarte is one of the most likeable guys in the clubhouse. Yangervis went through a wicked 2-week slump in May but has turned it on of late with 18 hits in 15 games. Plus he can play three infield positions and provide a switch-hitting bat off the bench. He’s not great at any one thing but he’s really good at everything so any contender looking for a reliable veteran will be calling about Solarte. The thing that might keep him in San Diego is his leadership ability. Plenty of the Padres’ young Latino players look to for Yangervis for guidance. Plus he has a team-friendly contract that the Friars could certainly stomach for the next few years to help raise the youngsters.
Trade Probability: 65%
Trevor Cahill and Jered Weaver, Starting Pitchers
Cahill has resumed throwing after going on the disabled list in mid-May with a shoulder ailment. If he is able to come back and make a couple of effective starts before the deadline, say anything on par with what he did before going on the shelf (3.27 ERA, 51 K in 41.1 IP) then someone needing a 4th or 5th starter will come after the Vista High School alum. I threw Weaver on here because he’s also a starter who could come off the DL in the next month or so but he is not in the same situation as Cahill. Nobody is going to inquire about him but as we’ve seen with A.J. Preller in the past he might make another team take the velocity-challenged starter in a trade for someone else.
Trade Probability: Cahill 50%, Weaver 5%
Jhoulys Chacin, Starting Pitcher
This is one of the strangest seasons for a veteran starting pitcher that I have seen in a while. At home Chacin is pitching to a 1.36 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP in 33.0 innings. On the road he’s sporting a truly horrific 10.27 ERA with a 2.12 WHIP in 30.2 innings. But he’s struck out 28 at home and 28 on the road. The stuff is there but for some reason it’s not working away from Petco Park. There is the possibility that, if he can look like even a serviceable starter in a start or two away from the East Village, a contender desperate for help in the rotation will take a flier on Chacin for a mid-level prospect.
Trade Probability: 35%
Clayton Richard, Starting Pitcher
Richard’s journey back from baseball purgatory is inspiring. After undergoing surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome (including having a rib removed) Richard has put up a few stinkers but also thrown a couple of gems this year and he’s doing the thing he’s always been able to do: eat innings. Richard is also well-respected around the game for his demeanor and clubhouse presence. A team looking to fill out the back end of its rotation could look at Richard as an option.
Trade Probability: 25%
Ryan Buchter, Craig Stammen, Brandon Maurer and Kirby Yates, Relief Pitchers
You’ll see a pattern forming here. Most of the guys available are pitchers. It’s no coincidence that these are also the spots that most teams will be interested in. All three of these guys have had stretches where they were dominant and all three have at times struggled in a big way. But they’ve all shown the ability to handle late-inning situations and that might make them attractive trade chips. The issue with moving them will be the quality of other relievers on the market. If teams like the Royals and Pirates start dismantling then there will be better options for contenders to go after. If any of these guys are moved it will be in smaller deals to fill out other bullpens or serve as emergency backfills for injuries.
Trade Probability: 25%
Erick Aybar, Shortstop
The Padres would probably love to move Aybar, who is basically just filling space at SS right now. Problem is the veteran is 33 years old with a .274 OBP and limited range in the infield so if he is shipped off it would have to be a situation similar to Weaver where the Friars make another team take him off their hands in a deal for someone they actually want like Hand.
Trade Probability: 3%
Ryan Schimpf, Cory Spangenberg, Matt Szczur and Chase d’Arnaud, Infielders/Outfielders
Schimpf is likely the most desirable as a late-inning left-handed bat off the bench since he can change a game with one swing (like the modern-day Matt Stairs) but his strikeout rate is off the charts so a team acquiring him will not do it to fill a hole in the starting lineup. Spangenberg, Szczur and d’Arnaud are both good late-inning defensive options but not going to give you much at the plate. Any deals involving these guys would be for purely “we’ve had too many injuries and are jumping up and down on the panic button” purposes.
Trade Probability: 2%
Jose Pirela, Luis Perdomo and Kevin Quackenbush, Utility Man, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher
There is not going to be a market that develops for any of these guys. Maybe in a few years Perdomo will draw interest but he’s only 24 years old and not there yet.
Trade Probability: 0.5%
Allen Cordoba, Franchy Cordero, Jose Torres, Miguel Diaz, Luis Torrens and Dinelson Lamet, The Rookies
These guys are good and young and tremendously unproven. Cordoba, Diaz and Torrens have shown enough at Rule 5 draftees to stick for the duration of the season. Cordero has all kinds of athletic ability in the outfield and Torres and Lamet both have good stuff they’re still learning how to use. But all of these guys are the prospects San Diego would have to include in a deal with another team because they are adding veteran pieces for the stretch run, not the other way around.
Trade Probability: 0.25%
Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot, The Untouchables
Don’t even ask. The Padres gave Myers the largest contract in franchise history so they could build around him. Preller knows the public relations fallout of dealing the face of the franchise right now. Hedges is going to be an All-Star behind the plate, Renfroe is going to be a consistent 30-HR threat and Margot is going to win multiple Gold Gloves if he can stay healthy. These guys aren’t going anywhere.
Trade Probability: There’s a better chance of the Dodgers trading Clayton Kershaw to the Giants for a bucket of baseballs and an otter ... so -10%
