What a difference a year makes.
In February of 2015 the Padres were the talk of Major League Baseball. Their off-season, while risky and ultimately doomed, was fascinating to watch unfold. It showed the franchise was willing to try to win, something that frankly took Padres fans by surprise.
In February of 2016 the Padres are just kind of … there. Their off-season was more about fixing what didn’t work a year ago and laying the ground work for the next decade than trying to become an immediate contender. Well-known faces like Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and Jedd Gyorko are gone.
Even the bunch will look different. For the first time since 2006 Bud Black is not calling the shots. Instead we get to see how new manager Andy Green wants to run the ship.
So when Padres pitchers and catchers report to the Peoria Sports Complex exactly what is Spring Training going to look like? Let’s take a shot an answering some of those questions.
Let’s start with the starting rotation. We know Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner are the top three guys there. Well, they are until one, two, or all of them are traded (and mark my words: that is going to remain a possibility all the way up through August). Assuming they all stay put for a while the other two starters will come from a large group of candidates.
The three frontrunners, as far as I can tell, are Brandon Morrow, Brandon Maurer and Colin Rea (again, as long as General Manager A.J. Preller doesn’t pull off another trade).
Morrow was arguably the Padres’ most effective starting pitcher in the first month of last season. He was 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA and a career-best strikeout-walk ratio when his season ended with an injury. The Padres re-signed him to a minor league contract in hopes he’ll be able to get healthy again.
Maurer was a starter with the Mariners but moved to the Padres bullpen in 2015. He was mentioned by Preller as a possible closer candidate after the Kimbrel trade but the Friars added Fernando Rodney as a free agent so they’re going to give Maurer a chance to earn his way back in to the rotation during Cactus League play.
Rea is one of the Padres’ top prospects and showed flashes of what he’s capable of in a handful of late-season starts. Rea’s final outing was easily his best. On September 8 he went 7.0 shutout innings against the Rockies but did not throw again after experiencing elbow and forearm soreness. He did not require surgery and if healthy will get every chance to make the Opening Day roster.
Then we have the bullpen. Rodney is in. If Maurer doesn’t earn a spot on the rotation he’ll be back there, too. Lefty Drew Pomeranz, who was acquired in a trade with the A’s for 1st baseman Yonder Alonso, and Carlos Villanueva (free agent from the Cardinals) are also likely shoe-ins.
The fight for the final three or four sports will be massive. In the mix are Ramona H.S. alum Nick Vincent, Kevin Quackenbush, Robbie Erlin (who is also on the list of starter candidates), Leonel Campos, Cory Mazzoni and a whole ton of young arms that have yet to make their big league debuts but have had success in the upper minor league levels.
Aside from Rodney and Villanueva the Padres ‘pen will be extremely young but it should feature a bunch of big arms, something Preller has shown an affinity for.
As far as the position players go … that’s not any more solidified than the pitching staff is. The only things we can write in permanent ink are Alexei Ramirez at shortstop and Matt Kemp in right field (again, assuming he is not traded). After that we have a pretty good idea that Wil Myers is the 1st baseman, Cory Spangenberg is the 2nd baseman and Yangervis Solarte is at 3rd.
Behind the plate Derek Norris is the presumptive starter with Austin Hedges and Christian Bethancourt as the backups. However it’s widely known that Norris is on the trade block for a couple of reasons. One is he is one of the few players the Padres have at the moment who could bring back real value. Another is they’d love to insert Hedges, who proved himself to be every bit as good defensively as we’d hoped, as the everyday guy.
Trying to fill the outfield next to Kemp is a lot like what the Friars are facing in the bullpen. There are a lot of options but you’re not quite sure how they’ll all fit together. We know Melvin Upton will be back. Offensively he leaves a lot to be desired in a man making $16 million but he is still a valuable defender who can play either center or left.
John Jay, acquired from the Cardinals in the deal that sent Jedd Gyorko to St. Louis, is also pretty much guaranteed a roster spot. Then we have a few prospects to take a long look at, including Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe, San Diego native Alex Dickerson and Jabari Blash (taken in the Rule V Draft by the A’s before coming to the Padres in the Alonso trade). Jankowski is the best defender in the group but doesn’t profile as a big power guy. Renfroe and Blash have the kind of raw power scouts gush over and Dickerson is a left-handed bat the Padres desperately need.
Oh, and don’t forget about the bench, where Alexi Amarista and Skip Schumaker, Jose Pirela and Brett Wallace will be trying to earn at-bats.
That’s how things stand on Monday, February 15. Just for fun I’ll take a stab at how the roster will look on April 4:
STARTING PITCHERS (5)
Tyson Ross, RHP
James Shields, RHP
Andrew Cashner, RHP
Brandon Maurer, RHP
Colin Rea, RHP
RELIEF PITCHERS (7)
Fernando Rodney, RHP
Carlos Villanueva, RHP
Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Nick Vincent, RHP
Leonel Camps, RHP
Cory Mazzoni, RHP
Tayron Guerrero, RHP (He’s 6’7” and throws in the upper-90’s)
CATCHERS (2)
Austin Hedges
Christian Bethancourt
(Yes, I think Norris will be dealt at some point before Opening Day)
INFIELDERS (6)
Wil Myers
Cory Spangenberg
Alexei Ramirez
Yangervis Solarte
Alexi Amarista
Brett Wallace
OUTFIELDERS (5)
Matt Kemp
Melvin Upton Jr.
John Jay
Travis Jankowski
Jabari Blash
That last name, Blash, has the kind of nutty pop the Friars have needed for a while. I’m thinking he’ll put together such a prolific Spring that the Friars will have no choice but to keep him on the roster in April.
The youth movement is officially on for the Padres. Again. Play ball!
