The Red Sox won the World Series and finished the year with 119 wins (regular and post-season). So now the fun begins for everyone who does not get to stage a parade.
As has been the case since A.J. Preller became general manager this is going to be an extremely interesting off-season for the Padres. But this year it’s also an incredibly important off-season for the Padres.
The last few years have been about building the system. Well now the system is built and we’re in the window where the Padres need so start showing they’re competitive. Like, competitive enough to get into the playoffs by 2020 and in the World Series by 2021.
To do that they have to at least flirt with a .500 record this year and have several more of their hot prospects show they can play in the big leagues. With that in mind here are the Top-5 most important things the Padres have to address this off-season:
What do You do at Shortstop?
Free agent Freddy Galvis is a Gold Glove finalist who is serviceable with the bat. His real value is the way he helps the young Latin players in the Padres clubhouse. I saw several times before and after games where Galvis was holding court at his locker talking with the rookies, sharing his experience on how to act like a Major Leaguer. Plus he’s the anti-Machado. Galvis wants to play every inning of every game no matter how he’s feeling or what the situation is. I’ll take a guy like that on my team any day.
However, he’s very likely going to soon be replaced by one of those young Latin players. Fernando Tatis Jr. is AT MOST a year away from joining the big league club and once he gets there odds are he won’t be going anywhere. However, Tatis has played 3rd base, as well, and it’s not out of the question for the Padres to re-sign Galvis and have the rookie move over one spot. Goodness knows he’s better defensively there than Wil Myers will ever be.
And since I mentioned Machado and am on the record as saying I’d be stoked to have him I’ll say this as an update: seeing his antics during the post-season I’m not convinced he’s the guy to add. Yes the talent is off the charts. Yes the Padres ownership group would probably be willing to spend what it takes to get him (I know that sounds completely foreign to Friars faithful but this group is serious about winning). But I cannot in good conscience laud Galvis and his positive influence then turn around and stump for Machado. So no A.J. please don’t sign him. Spend the money elsewhere. Say, perhaps, the mound, which brings us to …
Do You Add an Ace to the Deck?
Starting pitching was the biggest deficiency for the Padres in 2018. The good news is rookies Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Jacob Nix showed good stuff and, even more encouraging, some serious mental toughness. They demonstrated the ability to adjust when they got roughed up and that bodes well for the future, and while one of them is probably going to develop into a front-of-the-rotation Max Scherzer type, they have the ability to be solid 3rd, 4th, or 5th starters.
And keep in mind all of those guys were not even in the top five PITCHING prospects in the Padres system. They have a few studs on the way who could end up at Petco Park in 2019, most notably Chris Paddack and Logan Allen, and don’t forget Cal Quantrill. Although his numbers haven’t been great he’s a former #1 pick with tremendous stuff. Plus Dinelson Lamet is expected to return in 2019. So does San Diego stay the course and try to run out an entirely home-grown starting rotation with their young guns (depending on the health of Clayton Richard)? Or do they try to add an established ace?
The free agent class has a few interesting options like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, and Nathan Eovaldi. I still think they have the currency in the minor league system to be the frontrunners to trade for Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, or Zack Wheeler from the Mets if New York ends up putting any or all of their best players up for auction. Preller will have to determine who’s available at what price then decide if he wants to give all the kids a chance or bring in an All-Star in his prime. If a deal is made it will likely have to involve an outfielder because the Padres are suddenly flush with them.
Who Stays in Outfield?
Manuel Margot is probably not going to be much of an offensive threat but he’s an elite defensive centerfielder. Hunter Renfroe cut down dramatically on his strikeouts and his approach at the plate improved enough to think he could turn into a consistent 35-home run threat. Franmil Reyes might have even more power than Renfroe, plus he’s just fun to watch. Travis Jankowski is a reliable late-inning defensive replacement who can give you an occasional boost with the left-handed bat. Franchy Cordero is a raw package of speed and power who will be back from injury in 2019. They’ve all shown enough to make us believe they can stick for 162 games.
Then we have that other guy …
What Position Does Wil Myers Play, Exactly?
Usually when a team uses a player at multiple positions it’s because he’s pretty good at multiple positions. The Padres have been moving Myers around because they want his potential power in the lineup and he’s not very good at any one position.
He was an All-Star at 1st base in 2016 but that was more due to his bat. He was at least serviceable in left field in 2018 but an injury put him on the DL and gave Reyes and Renfroe a chance to develop so, with a hole at 3rd base, the Padres gave Myers a look at the hot corner.
The results were … let’s go with not impressive. Myers says he can play 3rd and just needs more time to learn the nuances of the position but his propensity for backhanding grounders and throwing sidearm across the diamond don’t look promising. Moving Myers back to left would be the safest bet but no team is going to keep six outfielders so someone would have to go. They could also leave Myers at 3rd and see if the improvement comes.
The most likely scenario is Preller tries to trade Myers and his soon-to-be hefty contract (from 2020-2022 he’s due $22.5 million annually).
Who Gets 40-Man Roster Protection?
This is going to be interesting. On Thursday the Padres traded catcher Raffy Lopez to the Braves for cash or a player to be named later, a move designed entirely to start clearing space on the 40-man roster. On Friday the Friars designated reliever Kazuhisa Makita for assignment and outrighted outfielder (and Poway H.S. alum) Alex Dickerson then took Lamet, Cordero, and LHP Clayton Richard off the 60-day disabled list to put them on the 40-man.
As of right now that 40-man roster is full. That is going to have to change soon. If they add any free agents, those players have to be added to the roster. But the even bigger concern is MLB teams have about two and a half weeks to decide who they want to keep out of December’s Rule 5 Draft and for the first time possibly ever the Padres have a roster crunch because they have several high-ranking prospects that need to be protected.
Paddack, fellow RHP Anderson Espinoza, and catcher Austin Allen are guaranteed to get roster spots. Then you have outfielders Edward Olivares and Michael Gettys … pitchers Pedro Avila, Hansel Rodriguez, and Gerardo Reyes … and infielder Ty France (former SDSU star) who warrant consideration.
Not all of them will be protected so you’re going to have a few very good players exposed to other teams. Of course that didn’t hurt them last year when Reyes was left unprotected and nobody bit on him.
Just for fun let’s assume the Padres want to keep, say, five of those young players on the 40-man. Who can be let go? Preller could try to make more trades like the Lopez deal where he clears a spot for cash or a lower-level, younger prospect. Absent that the following players are candidates:
RHP Walker Lockett
RHP Luis Perdomo
INF Jose Pirela
C Luis Torrens
INF Allen Cordoba
RHP Rowan Wick OR LHP Brad Wieck
INF Carlos Asuaje
The Lockett, Perdomo, and Pirela experiments need to be over. Torrens and Cordoba are both former Rule 5 guys who have been overtaken by other prospects in the system. Wick and Wieck are on the list because of the numbers game (several guys needing protection are pitchers). Asuaje simply has not developed like the Padres had hoped and he might be squeezed out although I think it’s a bit of a longshot.
Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas in December. That is when we should get answers to at least a few of these questions.
