Fire Bud Black? Not So Fast, Padres Fans…

An objective look at the manager's 2015 performance so far

Until the Padres win the World Series there is going to be a drumbeat thumping away for the Padres to fire Bud Black. I understand the sentiment; Just not the logic.

The last time the Padres went to the playoffs was 2006, when Bruce Bochy was their manager. Bochy’s success in San Francisco has, I’m sure, impacted the way Padres fans feel about Black but the Giants roster has been superior to the Friars for years.

Now that Buddy has a group of legitimate big leaguers to run out there every day the expectations are playoffs or bust. So sitting at around .500 in to May is not hacking it for most fans just looking for an excuse to make a change at the top.

I will admit I’m a Bud Black fan. His 2010 performance was tremendous and I think he can replicate that with a decent lineup (something he certainly has now). But, I’ll remove that and take an objective look at the current situation to see if the Fire Bud Black movement has any merit.

First off, the Padres are still in the “get to know you” phase of their development. You don’t churn up 60-percent of your roster in one off-season without expecting an adjustment period. So, this is a bit of a grace period that I think we can let last until the start of June.

One of the biggest complaints about Buddy is the way he assembles his lineups. He is definitely a tinkerer. Black is a big fan of analytics and tries to mix and match lineups to give his team the best shot at winning that day. One difference this year is the outfield.

It’s been Justin Upton in left batting 4th, Wil Myers in center leading off and Matt Kemp in right batting 3rd, with only a couple of scheduled days off for rest. On the infield is where the juggling has come, but not as much as it seems. Here’s the breakdown of how Black has doled out playing time for his infielders through 31 games:

1st base: Yonder Alonso, 24 starts; Yangervis Solarte, 6 starts; Wil Myers, 1 start
2nd base: Jedd Gyorko, 16 starts; Solarte, 9 starts; Cory Spangenberg, 6 starts
3rd base: Will Middlebrooks, 24 starts; Solarte, 5 starts; Spangenberg, 2 starts
SS: Alexi Amarista, 23 starts; Clint Barmes, 8 starts

It would appear the only true platoons are at second and short, although Middlebrooks may have hit his way in to less playing time with a recent slump and Alonso’s trip to the disabled list will open up more audition time for Myers at first.

In the batting order, the infield and catcher are on a bit of a rotation that’s based on where Derek Norris is the best fit for that night, which is normal for most big league managers. The pitching staff has been handled the same way it always has been, but this year the guys in the bullpen have not been as effective at protecting leads as they usually are, which is really (with a few exceptions) not the manager’s fault. He’s using them in the same situations, just getting different results.

So we go to clubhouse chemistry. Regardless of what sport we’re talking about, more often than not the team takes on the identity of the manager or the head coach. The Padres have long been known for the scrappy nature and fight, one of the only reasons their lack of talent amongst position players has not led to a series of 100-loss seasons. That comes from the manager.

Now, I will admit it remains to be seen how Black handles a team full of established All-Stars, especially if things start going really bad. Speaking of going really bad, that has not happened yet.  More than a few teams have gotten off to much worse starts and gotten it together in time to win the World Series.

1991 Twins: 2-9
2002 Angels: 6-14
2003 Marlins: 19-29 (On June 18, 2003, the Marlins were in last place in the NL East at 34-49)
2013 Red Sox: 2-10

The only one to make a mid-season managerial change was the Marlins, and as much credit as Jack McKeon deserves for that title is also had a little to do with Josh Beckett, Mark Redman, Greg Holland and Kevin Olsen back from injuries as the season wore on.

In conclusion, the call to fire Bud Black is premature and based more on a pre-existing bias or frustration than an evaluation of the Padres performance thus far in the 2015 season. If the Friars are still middle in the middle of June, then we can talk.

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