Wide Open Open

Picking the winner at the U.S. Open is no easy task.

Don't be surprised if the last man standing on the 18th green at Olympic Club is an unfamiliar face. Sure, some past winners of the U.S. Open are household names. But for every Tiger Woods (2000/2002/2008) there is a Lucas Glover (2009) or a Michael Campbell (2005).

Tiger, Phil and Rory are the favorites among odds-makers, but these "Usual Suspects" are no gimmes to be on the first page of the leader-board come Sunday. Tiger Woods is the bettors favorite to win his fourth U.S. Open title. He's won twice this year and in impressive fashion. But he also has before you hand him the trophy remember Tiger was basically a no-show at Augusta, missed the cut in Charlotte and posted a T40 at The Players Championship.

Phil Mickelson, five times a bridesmaid at this event, played his best golf early in the season. His final round 64 at Pebble Beach which propelled him to victory at the AT&T, arguably the best round on the PGA Tour this year, was over four months ago.

Similar to Phil, last year's champion Rory McIlroy played his best golf of 2012 before The Masters. Two missed cuts in his last three events is not exactly the best preparation for Olympic Club.

History is also on the side of the underdog. In the four Opens contested at Olympic the runner-up had a more accomplished career than the champion. Payne Stewart finished second to Lee Janzen in 1998. Tom Watson lost by a stroke to Scott Simpson in 1987. In 1966 Billy Casper beat Arnold Palmer in a playoff. Jack Fleck won an 18 hole playoff against Ben Hogan to win the 1955 championship, to this day one of the biggest upsets in major championship history.

Throw into the mix a brutally difficult course, the potential for tricky weather conditions and pressure at its highest level the chances of picking the eventual U.S. Open champion is like hitting Olympic Club's par 5 (670 yards from the tips) 16th hole in two--an iffy proposition at best.

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