Padres General Manager A.J. Preller is going to have an awfully busy week. The MLB trade deadline looms on Friday, July 31, and he has some personnel decisions to make.
On Sunday afternoon at Petco Park I heard a couple of scouts from opposing teams having a discussion in the Press Box. One said his team needs an 8th-inning guy and of all the ones he’s seen Joaquin Benoit is the best available so they (I’ll keep the team a secret) will likely make a play for the Padres setup man. But Benoit is far from the only player who could be pried out of San Diego.
This season other MLB teams are looking at the Padres like they’re Costco; you can probably find anything you need there, and you might walk in looking for one thing but leave with a whole lot more.
There are very few, if any, players who Preller will not at least entertain offers for. So let’s take a look at the ENTIRE San Diego Padres 25-man roster and see who’s likely to go and who’s likely to stay (this is the MLB roster as of Sunday, July 26):
RHP James Shields
He’s an intriguing dilemma. Shields wants to stay in San Diego and the club controls his salary through 2019. However, he jumps from making $10 million this year to pulling in $21 million in 2016. That’s a hefty increase and one the Padres might like to get out of. Shields is proving to be as durable as ever and could be that last missing piece for a team making a post-season push, so if someone wants him badly enough they could make an offer the Padres cannot refuse.
Trade Likelihood: 40%. Preller would move Shields, but the return is going to have to be awfully big.
RHP Tyson Ross
One of the guys Preller considers the core of the team, Ross is getting a lot of attention. However, he’s been one of the most consistent starters on the club and has two years of arbitration left so there’s certainly no rush to let him leave.
Trade Likelihood: 2%. It would take a prospect haul of Jeff Bagwellian proportions to get Preller to give up Ross.
RHP Andrew Cashner
Cash is a bit of an enigma. He has the stuff of a front-of-the-rotation starter but this year has not consistently pitched like one. Off-the-field issues like worrying about his mother’s health could very well be contributing to it, and it’s easy to understand why. Cashner has one year of arbitration left so if a team in need of a 4th starter offers up a decent return he could be playing elsewhere by August.
Trade Likelihood: 50-50. The chance to add an electric arm like this might be too much for a contender to pass up.
RHP Ian Kennedy
Kennedy has fought inconsistency as well but of late. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts and only coughed up one earned run in five of those outings. Kennedy is a free agent at the end of the year and that typically (with the Padres, at least) increases the desire to trade a man and get something more than a draft pick in return.
Trade Likelihood: 75%. Kennedy is a veteran arm who can help a team looking for a 4th starter for the stretch run.
RHP Odrisamer Despaigne
He’s durable with the potential for brilliant starts but suffers from fits of inconsistency. You really never know which OD you’re going to get and a team in a pennant race can’t rely on that.
Trade Likelihood: 1%. Unless it’s one of those seemingly insignificant deals between teams out of contention who just like someone else’s guy because, Despaigne is not going anywhere.
RHP Craig Kimbrel
Everybody needs a closer, or at least thinks they do. But the Blue Jays REALLY need a closer. Toronto’s bullpen has blown 16 of 31 save chances this year. They have one of the top five lineups in baseball but can’t hold a lead. Kimbrel changes all that. Plus, it’s being reported that the Padres have been scouting the Blue Jays system awfully hard lately, so if Toronto is willing to give up what Preller wants (and he NEEDS to get at the very least what he gave up to get Kimbrel out of Atlanta) the hard-throwing right-hander will need to keep his passport handy.
Trade Likelihood: 98%. The Jays are three games out of a Wild Card spot. Solving their bullpen issues puts them in the playoffs so you have a motivated buyer here.
RHP Joaquin Benoit
Another veteran who will get an awful lot of attention, likely from the Blue Jays as well. Benoit has been effective for his entire career and offers the flexibility to setup or close. As previously mentioned there is certainly a market for Benoit so Preller will have to see what he can get. Kimbrel’s situation will also have an impact here.
Trade Likelihood: 50-50. There’s no rush to move Benoit but if he can bring in some prospects it’s worth looking in to.
RHP Brandon Maurer
He’s been arguably the Padres best reliever in 2015. Maurer has the stuff to handle the 7th, 8th or 9th innings and he’s under team control for another year. He’s the kind of guy you simply do not let go of at this stage of his career.
Trade Likelihood: Don’t even bother asking.
RHP Shawn Kelley
The start of his season was a Hindenburg-level disaster. However, in his last 25.1 innings Kelley has allowed just three runs with 30 strikeouts. He’s throwing the ball extremely well and could add bullpen depth to a team looking for help in the middle innings.
Trade Likelihood: 35%. If a team calls asking about him, the pending free agent could be had. The question is how many teams will call about him instead of the variety of other bullpen arms on the market?
RHPs Dale Thayer, Marcos Mateo, Kevin Quackenbush
I put all of these guys in one line because they’re all basically in the same situation. No teams are going to target them but they could all be throw-ins with a deal for another guy.
Trade Likelihood: 25%. Don’t count on it but don’t rule it out either.
OF Justin Upton
Upton is an All-Star hitter who has a history of heating up down the stretch and provides a dangerous power option in the middle of a lineup. He’s a free agent at the end of the year that could very well get a $200 million deal, which prices him out of San Diego. If the Padres don’t trade Upton they’ll get a draft pick. Plenty of teams need a guy like Upton and they know the situation the Padres are in, which will make trade talks very interesting.
Trade Likelihood: I hope his lease is month-to-month. At the last-minute some team will panic and pull the trigger to add a guy who might help them win a World Series title this year.
OF Matt Kemp
1) Leader of the Padres clubhouse.
2) Big contract.
3) With another big 2nd half he’s proving he can still hit and build around.
Trade Likelihood: 0%. This is just not a possibility.
OF Will Venable
Will has quietly had a very nice season. He provides high-quality defense at all three outfield spots and has become a reliable left-handed bat from either the starting lineup or off the bench. There will be discussions about Venable and a team that needs a solid veteran as a 4th outfielder could do a whole lot worse than this guy.
Trade Likelihood: 65%. That number goes up is someone on a contending team gets hurt. Basically, think of Venable as Maverick being ready to launch on Alert-5.
OF Melvin Upton
It’s a miracle the Padres were able to take his contract off the Braves’ hands. Nobody else is going to do the same thing.
Trade Likelihood: -100%. There’s a better chance Pete Rose is inducted to the Hall of Fame next year than there is of Upton getting traded this week.
OF Abraham Almonte
I had honestly forgotten he was with the big club. Odds are most other teams around baseball had forgotten that, too. If he moves it would be another throw-in situation.
Trade Likelihood: 3%.
1B Yonder Alonso
At the age of 28 and six years in to a big league career it’s safe to say Alonso is not going to develop the kind of power people thought he would when he was a younger prospect. Yonder is still able to get on base and will drive in the occasional run but when (if) Wil Myers gets healthy he will likely be a better option at first base. At this stage of the season teams are not looking for light-hitting corner infielders.
Trade Likelihood: 0%. Alonso is not the kind of difference maker you swing a deal for in a pennant race.
2B Jedd Gyorko
Jedd has a big contract that’s not being lived up to. Preller might be looking to move Gyorko but nobody is looking to add him.
Trade Likelihood: Not a snowball’s chance in ……
SS Alexi Amarista
Alexi has been out of his natural position at short and done as good a job as he’s capable of. However, if he can go back to his role of utility infielder his value jumps dramatically. It’s not likely but a team looking for infield depth could kick the tires on Amarista in one of those “under the radar” kind of moves.
Trade Likelihood: 5%. If Preller is able to get a shortstop in another deal he could move Amarista but it’s more likely he stays on to be the swing infielder again.
3B Yangervis Solarte
Similar to Alonso, Yan is a nice player but not a guy who pushes a team over the top. Unlike Alonso, Solarte is only in his second MLB season so there is still upside to consider (even though they’re the same age).
Trade Likelihood: 10%. Again, not likely but not altogether out of the question.
SS Clint Barmes
Here’s a veteran who has played very well when given a chance this year. Barmes is the kind of guy teams covet in the stretch run because he’s solid, good in the clubhouse and has been around the block a few times. Expect a few teams to come calling about him.
Trade Likelihood: 70%. I have no idea why but my gut tells me Barmes is going to be that final piece to the puzzle for a team trying to make the playoffs.
1B Brett Wallace
Left-handed pinch-hit specialist. Everybody needs one of those at some point. But, odds are this is not the one they’ll go after.
Trade Likelihood: 0.5%. This would be a head-scratcher unless he’s added to a deal as a bonus.
C Derek Norris
What a drop-off Norris has had in 2015. He has not driven in a run since June 28, a span of 62 at-bats. Norris has gone from the All-Star conversation to being the guy who’s blocking Austin Hedges’ development. Still, when he’s good Norris is really good and he could very well be playing through an undisclosed injury.
Trade Likelihood: 1%. Preller would have to be blown away by an offer to part with Norris.
C Austin Hedges
He has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt he can handle himself in the majors defensively. He’s also hit for more power than expected and he’s done it with sporadic playing time. Hedges is still one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He’s the kind of guy a team gets in a trade when that team is looking to the future. Since the Padres are looking to the future they’re not going to deal Hedges now.
Trade Likelihood: Nope, no way, nah-uh. Not gonna happen.
OK, I think that’s it. Which players do you want to keep? Which do you want to see go? Let us know in the comments.
