While a parched California copes with a long-term drought, water threatens to cost the state billions in a much different way if climate change continues unchecked, according to a new study.
By 2050, rising sea levels could engulf between $8 and $10 billion in coastal property, with up to $10 billion more susceptible to tidal flooding, according to the study by climate change research group Risky Business.
Climate change will likely deepen the drought, change rain- and snowfall patterns, double or triple the number of extremely hot days in inland California and more: "Extreme heat will fuel large and costly wildfires, endanger water resources, drive up energy costs, exacerbate air pollution, and threaten human health," says the study, "From Boom to Bust? Climate Risk in the Golden State."
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer chair Risky Business and commissioned the report, released Thursday.
"Every city in California should be concerned about possible impacts (of climate change) on the state's agriculture and water supply," Bloomberg said in a news release.
Rising air temperatures are expected to warm the oceans and melt ice across the world, raising sea levels, according to many climate change models. The Risky Business analysts found that, because 85 percent of Californians live in coastal counties, the state's economic output would be threatened by rising oceans.
By 2100, $19 billion in property will likely be underwater, and the new waterline could threaten coastal infrastructure. San Diego is especially vulnerable, facing a predicted sea-level rise of 1.9 to 3.4 feet, the study says.
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Increasing heat is the best understood outcome of climate change, the study's analysts say, probably bringing more extremely hot days and fewer freezing days in the Golden State. That could lead to less snowfall, an important and already-diminishing source of water.
A hotter California would likely impact agriculture beyond what farmers are dealing with under the state's more than three-year drought. For example, Inland Empire cotton crops could yield $38 million less each year by the end of the century because the plant is sensitive to heat, the study says.
The higher heat could threaten outdoor laborers, whose productivity is forecasted to drop up to 2.2 percent by the end of the century in the Inland South region, which include San Bernardino, Riverside, Inyo and Imperial counties. The region would also see a higher energy demand than anywhere else in the state, leading to probable cost increases between 19 and 35 percent, according to the study.
"Every year that goes by without a comprehensive public and private sector response to climate change is a year that locks in future climate events that will have a far more devastating effect on our local, regional, and national economies," the study warns.
