How long will it take for California's labor market to get back to its pre-recession number of jobs (15.2 million)?
Well into 2015, according to a new report from Beacon Economics.
"Beacon Economics is currently forecasting that the unemployment rate will remain above 12% through the first half of 2011,and won’t dip below 10% before the end of 2012. Total nonfarm employment will continue to grow at an annualized rate of 1.5% over the next year and will gain steam in 2012—growing at a rate of 2.7%. However, it will be well into 2015 before California reaches its pre-recession peak of 15.2 million jobs."
And this may be an optimistic vision. Gov. Brown's budget, which is admirably based on conservative assumptions, doesn't assume full recovery until a year later -- 2016.